Thursday, February 12, 2015

Will The Ukraine War Intensify From Now Till The Start Of The Ceasefire On February 15?

Defending, and expanding, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic.(Reuters/Alexander Ermochenko)

Quartz: Ukraine’s ceasefire gives separatists two days “to conquer as much territory as they can”

More than 12 hours into talks between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko emerged to tell reporters that there was “no good news yet” on a deal to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

WNU Editor: I doubt that the war is going to escalate right now for the purpose of seizing territory .... the momentum is to hold back and see what happens after February 15. But it is also true that the front-lines are very tense right now .... for example .... there are reports that Ukrainian forces tried to break out of the Debaltseve encirclement that resulted in heavy fighting. There are also Ukrainian military reports that Russian armor and soldiers entered Ukraine only yesterday .... destination unknown. Given the right provocation .... especially around the Debaltseve Cauldron .... this war can restart very quickly.

I am also troubled by what I am hearing from Ukrainian President Poroshenko on the political front. Even though the Minsk II agreement talks about autonomy and the need to change the constitution to reflect a federal state ....the Ukrainian President is now saying that he will not abide by it. If this is his position .... the Minsk agreement is for all intents and purposes dead.

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