Monday, March 16, 2015

An Analysis On Why The Iraqi Offensive For Tikrit Has Stalled



Washington Post: Iraqi offensive for Tikrit stalls as casualties mount

NAJAF, Iraq — Iraqi forces’ operation to retake the city of Tikrit has stalled as troops suffer heavy casualties at the hands of Islamic State militants, raising concerns about whether the pro-government fighters are ready for major offensives.

After two days of little activity on the battlefield, Iraq’s interior minister, Mohammed al-Ghabban, confirmed Monday that the offensive has “temporarily stopped.” The steady flow of coffins arriving in Iraq’s Shiite holy city of Najaf suggests a reason for the pause; cemetery workers say as many as 60 war dead have been arriving each day.

Since last week, Iraqi forces have hemmed in the Sunni militants in Tikrit, claiming control of the majority of the former Islamic State stronghold. But the operation has come at a cost, with soldiers saying the fight has been tougher than expected. As the momentum has slowed, some Iraqi officials have begun to publicly call for U.S.-led air support.

WNU Editor: The Iraqi military complemented with Shiite militias and backed with Iranian advisers may have the numbers on their side, but it looks like they lack the capacity of a combined arms operation needed to break through the Islamic State's defensive positions in Tikrit. From what I have seen so far, the battle for Tikrit has been primarily an infantry operation without a large armored strike force complemented with overwhelming air assets. And while it appears that the Iraqi military/Shiite militias are making progress .... casualty rates have been too high .... if not unsustainable. I have also been reading a number of stories where Iraqi officials are now requesting U.S. air support .... but with Iranian advisers coordinating much of the fighting, I doubt that this is going to happen. Bottom line .... the Iraqis are clearly not ready to storm and retake the city of Mosul .... especially if they cannot win convincingly in Tikrit.

3 comments:

Jay Farquharson said...

WNU Editor,

Digging fanatics out of dug in urban environments is not easy. The Sunni Insurgency was dominated by people and fighters who wanted to live another day, the Mahdi Army, was willing to die, but was utterly ignorant about urban fighting.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Mosque_seizure

If you don't want to take heavy casualties in house to house, you need full on Enhanced Body Armour, including face shields and trauma plates, top down and mouseholing building clearance, and heavy armour,

Or you just run a very long seige and starve them out.



Anonymous said...

I read some years back of the seizing of the Grand Mosque that the insurgents message was so powerful that whole Saudi units would hear it over the loud speakers and immediately switch sides. That's why the French commandos were brought in.

Can't vouch for the accuracy of the above. I've since read numerous conflicting accounts of what happened.

Bob Huntley said...

US led air strikes? Where is the Iranian air force?