VOA: Saudi Airstrikes In Yemen Raise Specter Of Iranian Retaliation
Saudi Arabia’s airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen have raised fears of a proxy war and direct conflict between Tehran and rival Riyadh.
But some analysts say this is unlikely — and caution there are other concerns much more pressing.
The Houthis are members of a Shi’ite revival movement that has fought Yemen’s central government for at least a decade and took control of the capital, Sana'a, in September.
Iran, which backs the rebels, has called the airstrikes a “dangerous action” against Yemen’s sovereignty. Iran is reported to have provided the Houthis money, weapons and training, but it isn’t clear how much and for how long.
WNU Editor: Most people are saying no .... Iran will do nothing. But as the conflict in Yemen intensifies, Iran will need to do something to at least placate their supporters in other conflict zones that they will not be abandoned by Iran.What shape or form that retaliation may take is something that I do not know .... and I also do not know how Saudi Arabia itself may respond if they are targeted .... but I suspect that they will not take it lying down.
16 comments:
If as I suspect Solemaini has gone to Yemen, then yes things will get nastier. At a minimum a rise of domestic unrest in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, appearance Of Iranian naval units( but not necessarily direct action), and announcements of Houthi/Irani cooperation agreements. Also indirect threatening of canal shipping. The most underreported aspect that may in the end tell a large tale is Pakistan weighing in on the Saudi side, how much of this is talk is yet to be seen.
Pakistan is Sunni ~ 85%
Pakistan is a competitor with Iran for Afghanistan unless they split it up somehow into spheres of influence. Or maybe that is not the right way to look at it.
Pakistan and Iran have been good neighbors. Maybe because they have their hands full with other things that they cannot afford to antagonize each other.
Pakistanis Sunnis routinely persecute Shia inside Pakistan on a small scale. Iran does not seem to care. Of course China did not care when Pol Pot persecuted the Chinese minority. Maybe both had their eyes on bigger prizes.
Terrorist groups routinely attack Iran from Pakistani territory. It might be that Pakistan cannot control Baluchistan or its' western border and Iran accepts this explanation and believes it to be true.
Pakistan is a weak state. It probably does not want to tangle with Iran. It might be the straw that breaks its' back.
I just wonder:
How much persecution of Shia in Pakistan would Iran tolerate. If the % of shia went form 15% to 14 % in a short time period, would that sour relations?
Would Pakistan become nonneutral if Iran was visibly weak even though they have been good neighbors for going on 4 decades?
Highly unlikely Iran will become embroiled in Yemen since the nuclear deal with US is close. The Houthis will be equipped by Iran and have to fight this one alone. Iranian military specialists will be present but not active in the fire fights forthcoming.
Aizino,
You're asking the million dollar question. Are the Iranian leaders true believers or is it window dressing for hard core realpolitik? This is speculation on my part, but it's a mix of both dependent on the situation. I suspect if it suited their agenda the Iranis would have no qualms to let the worlds Shia's slaughtered to the person without lifting a finger. Add to this a dollop of Persian Empire dreaming and voila you're close to what these guys are all about. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the GCCC have decided it's time to act and the sensitivities of the US be damned. Pakistan is making noises mostly because they've been reminded of the money they receive from the above group. If they get to involved Iran will start domestic disturbances in their cities, which with the problems they already have with rural Taliban etc will keep them mostly to words. As I have said before the ones to watch are Turkey and Israel.
I am now hearing credible reports Solemaini is in Yemen. This indicates Iran considers this a top arena and doesn't intend to let their Proxies lose. I watch for Irani naval and air movements.
Irans biggest dream has been to control the two eastern outlets (Hormuz and Bab del Mendab), establish a presence on the Med, and control the shrine cities of Mecca and Medina. They are close.
Almost positive that Solemaini is there. I'm expecting problem now in Saudi Arabia with the Shiites. There will be terrorist attacks against the House of Saud. Oil prices will be going on very soon. After the nuclear deal is signed all bets are off and it's going to get real hot. Turkey and Isreali must be aware of Putin's strategic ties to Syria. Good chance that this spark ignites the whole area. Does anyone know how many US ships are currently in the Mediterranean area???
Anon,
"Does anyone know how many US ships are currently in the Mediterranean area???"
Probably not enough and in a sense would it matter?
Otherwise an excellent forecast. Putin has got to be laughing. Keep an eye out for who shows up on his doorstep, I have a feeling his doorbell is going to be busy.
This is israel trying to get Iran to do something that would harm getting the sanctions on Iran lifted at the UN level.
I just read that the Saudi's inflicted a lot of damage to Houthis moving south. A lot of damage and a fair number of casualties to the Houthis forces. The next 24-48 hours will be interesting given their response. Good chance land invasion will be taking place from north and from south. Keep eyes posted on Hezbollah and Lebanon. A lot is unfolding quickly. Sinai troubles may be developing as well for Egypt.
James,
Azerbaijan wants a piece of Iran
There are many ethnic turks /Azeris living in Iran
Israel and Azerbaijan have cooperated in the past.
Persian did control Yemen around the 7th century.
I suspect that was partly to control trade & partly to put the squeeze on the Byzantine Empire.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sasanian_Empire
The west (if you consider the Sassanians the east and the Byzantines the West) controlled Yemen via their ally Ethiopia and directly through holding the part of Aden and Socotra. plus an island naval base in the Bab del Mendab.
The Romans should have learned desert warfare better. They conquered Mecca and/or Medina. They just killed most of their legion, because they drank the land dry. I fthey had learned desert warfare we would not be in this mess.
Anonymous,
"Good chance that this spark ignites the whole area"
Well if your analysis has a probability of greater than 45%, you have to wonder how stupid Obama, SKerry and friends are.
Answer if you want, I might learn something (honestly), but I consider Obama extremely conceited and/or stupid.
Stratfor or Navy Times might have a somewhat up to date map showing dispositions
Strafor's might be behind a paywall.
Paper copy of Navy Times has it every so often
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-carrier-movements-to-iranian-area-2010-6
https://www.stratfor.com/topics/military/tracking-u.s.-naval-power
You know, WNU's other job is probably to collect open source data.
James is right, it probably won't matter what ships are there for reasons of leadership, Iranian preparations and bullheadedness and other points.
Stirring up the Shia in Eastern Saudi Arabia and there is not a darn thing a carrier group can do about it.
Plus it takes months for Obama to make up his mind. He has not considered it as much as he would any old election. So he is not prepared. But his indecisiveness and lack of preparation and study (before the fact) will be passed off as "He is so smart and he has so much to consider" by the MSM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sasanian_Empire
A Persian slave told the the Muslims at Medina to dig a trench when they were about to be attacked by a coalition. He has seen it work in Persia earlier in his life. It is The Battle of the Trench
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Trench
Was he captured due to Persian involvement in Yemen?
That would be a good advertisement for leave no man behind!
Dunno Aizino, I've taken my pointy smart guy hat off. Until tomorrow:
https://youtu.be/RV9aHVx2Wv0
Iran cannot afford to attack Saudi Arabia over Yemen. It would mean the complete destruction of their diplomatic ties with nearly every other Muslim nation. Iran will continue to fund rebels and terrorists sympathetic to their cause and with these alone can keep the major powers in the Middle East and the US for that matter tangled up. Iran can also count on sustained Syrian and Russian support for their cause and growing relations with Iraq. Iran already has some form of a collective defense policy with Syria and I think this fact alone is often overlooked puplically as to why the US/Israel just hasn't bombed the heck out of Iran by now. Not to mention the stock piles of weapons in Palestine and Lebanon that would be unleashed on Israel in the event of such an attack. I think Iran smells weakness in the West and the rest of the Middle East and that is no one wants to confront another power militarly or get involved in another nations problems. Yemen still applies to this concept, even though an Arab coalition is formed and ready to invade it all counts on the will to carry out the mission of fighting a war and then implementing some form of Counter Terror strategy to stabilize Yemen. I doubt any Arab nation truly understands that task... The US just proved it difficult in Iraq and Afghanistan after some 13 years of war and Saudi Arabia has already intervened in Yemen in the past in 2009-10 that showed the flaws in their military and left over 133 Saudis dead before they left. Granted that was limited but I don't think Saudi has vastly improved their military since that time and still remains to be seen in my mind if they can carry out the mission.
I don't know Andrew, I've got a feeling that events have taken on a momentum of their own moving past normal considerations and constraints, in short all bets are off.
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