Will Peace Continue In Asia?

Van Jackson, The Diplomat: Will Asia's Peace Last?

Regional trends converging with longstanding flashpoints make conflict more likely.

Will Asia’s peace endure? The answer depends on how policymakers cope with growing structural pressures that increasingly encourage miscalculations, arms races, and reckless foreign policies.

A number of well-known yet largely overlooked regional trends make conflict more likely than in the past: mistrust; uncertainty; and widespread military modernization. The greater risk of conflict over time comes from the convergence of these trends with Asia’s longstanding flashpoints.

Now more than ever, Asian states express twin uncertainties about the intentions of a rising and increasingly assertive China on the one hand, and the willingness of the United States to maintain its stabilizing role in the region on the other. Apart from great power uncertainties, Asian states are wary about each other’s long-term capabilities and intentions as well — especially as much of the region undergoes a transition to larger and diverse militaries with more advanced capabilities.

WNU Editor: Historically speaking .... wars and conflicts have always been present throughout the continent. And while there are numerous conflicts and disputes occurring right now in many hotspots of Asia .... we have not had major nation states go to war against each other for the past few decades. Will this trend last? .... if history is any indication, the answer is probably no.