Reuters: As regional war rages, Syria's Assad faces setbacks
(Reuters) - In the course of a week, several setbacks for President Bashar al-Assad have provided fresh reminders of the strains facing the Syrian army and its allies in the four-year-long struggle for Syria.
In the southwest at the border with Jordan, the capture of a crossing by rebels suggests new resolve among their Arab backers who want to see Assad gone and to check the growth of Iranian influence across the Middle East.
In the northwest, near the border with Turkey, the capture of an entire city by Islamist groups including al Qaeda's Syrian wing has triggered claims in Damascus that Ankara has boosted its support for the insurgency.
More News On The Syrian Civil War
Bruising week for Syria's Assad as troops beaten on multiple fronts by more assertive rebels -- US News and World Report
Syrian regime reels from setbacks as rebels score key wins -- AFP
Assad Finally Losing His Grip on Syria? -- Arutz Sheva
Assad’s army and Iranian, Hizballah allies suffer defeats -- Debka
Assad’s grip on power is loosening -- The National editorial
Syria’s civil war: Assad on the back foot -- The Economist
Syrian rebels capture main border crossing with Jordan -- CBS/AP
Rebels seize Syria-Jordan border as IS storms Damascus -- AFP
Syria: Jordan shuts border after rebels raise Islamist flag at crossing -- IBTimes
Jordan shuts border crossing with Syria after fighting -- Reuters
ISIS Seizes Yarmouk Refugee Camp in Damascus, Syria: Witnesses -- NBC
ISIS Seizes New Territory in Deadly Attacks in Syria -- NYT
Palestinian Fighters Retake Parts of Refugee Camp Seized by ISIS -- Newsweek
Syria now at a 'dangerous tipping point,' UN warns -- FOX News
Cash pledged for Syria at Kuwait summit 'disappointing': aid groups -- Reuters
ISIS sets fire to hundreds of crates of Halal chicken despite thousands of refugees facing starvation in Syria - because it was made in the U.S. -- Daily Mail
Syria says 15,000 antiquities at risk in militia-run Idlib -- Reuters
Syria's lost generation: report counts cost of collapse in education system -- The Guardian
Syria: Creating A Wasteland And Calling It Peace -- Strategy Page
8 comments:
As McLaix pointed out Idlib was not a big loss for the SA. the more or less ceded it.
ISIS is threatening the Hama Aleppo road more strongly. This is worrisome.
The ISIS inroads in the Yarmouk refugee camp is mixed. The Palestinians might fight ISIS and tied down some of its troops or ISIS might convert some refugees. I certainly don't know.
I think it comes down to how much Iran or Hizbollah will or can throw into the fight.
ISIS loses ground in Iraq and tries to make up for it elsewhere. So it has the same total ground as before.
It is sort of like farms being swallowed up by suburbs and cites. More farms are created by draining marsh or cutting down forests. But at some point that can't go on.
I 1/2 think that If Iran was not diverting some resources and planning (thought) in Yemen, ISIS would be losing faster.
And after ISIS, Al Nusrah would be next on the menu.
If Turkey is no longer covertly aiding ISIS, I do not see how ISIS could last as a regional quasi-government.
Yarmouk is a very complicated "thing". Yarmouk is a dirstict/suburb of Damascus, just like Jobar, Al-Qabun, Daraya, Barzeh or Zamalaka. After rebels started the infiltration into the capital and captured many suburbs, and Yarmouk was one of them. This suburb is located south from the center, and between the main roads that lead to Daraa (on the West) and to the Damascus Airport (on the East). SAA started heavy operations against the rebels in early 2013, and as a first step they cleared the main roads, and encircles the areas from each other. As far as I remember the last major operation around Yarmouk was in 2014, and since then there was no any real operation, and even were a temporally truce. This suburb is encircled and as I know noone can get in, so than how ISIS captured the suburb?
This suburb still has high "population", not like other most of the rebel held suburbs. The people who leave there are mostly palestinians and refugees. IS could capture the are by recruit from the radical youngs there, but I have my doubt in this, because those refugees already wear way too many scars from different wars, why would they want even more? And also why would the Palestinians turn against Syrian Gov., which helped them earlier? I more likely say that some rebel groups from the suburbs just decided to join IS. In the battle of Damascus (or sometimes called Battle for Rif Dimashq governate) many radical rebel group participated (mainly Al-Nusrah) and with almost no FSA units among them. The reports I read said ISIS units from Hajar al-Aswad district (directly south from Yarmouk) were the ones who entered into Yarm., and pushed out other local, mainly moderated rebels.
Al-Nushra and ISIS relationship is a bit weird, sometimes they fight on the same side, other time against each others, which well show how divided the sides are, and how much they depend on the (local) brigades and their leaders views. In the case of Yarmouk, I heard many thing, so I'm not sure on what the real situation there at this moment, but similar infighings were on the field from years, and will be present in the near future, as long as the moderated groups not join and unite with the radicals. Just a few months ago there were heavy clashes in Duma suburb of Damascus (it's actualy very far from the city center but let's call it a part of it), when similar infighting broke out, but as I know for a different reason. It's led dozens of casualty on both side of the rebels while SAA just watched the show, and sometimes helped to shoot. During the clashes as the reports says a few thousand civilian were rescued from the area. Since then the situation is calm, but who knows how long.
Back a bit to Iblid, SAA reported some units were send to Iblid as a reinforcment, and they claim soon they will recapture the city, but I think this is just a distraction move. If we realy want to talk about setbacks of the SAA by military operations, yes we have some example from the recent months. SAA failed once again to break through Nubl and Zara siege, near to Aleppo. Or we can talk about the loss of the last Syrian border crossing point to Jordan. But there is another retreat example from the south, East from Daraa, the loss of Bosra. The front in Syria realy live. But on the other hand there are recent examples of SAA gains too, like the nicely done offense on the South Front, in eastern Al-Quneira. The enriclment of Aleppo is going very well, and they made some progress at Der-er-Zor, where they fight against IS. It's just cannot be said that SAA is on the loose. Yes if we see the recent 10 days, it's may seems like that, but wars are not about 10 days. This war will last for a few more years.
Aizino: Thanks for the new variant of my name, "McLaix". It's sound very well, I like it. :)
thank you for your input mlacix, it is always appreciated.
"This suburb is encircled and as I know no one can get in, so than how ISIS captured the suburb?"
Sewers?
Oh wait, you (mlacix) have written extensively about tunnels in the Syrian war. I should have checked out your blog to see if there was anything new on the tunnels.
Small Unit Infiltration?
Damascus is the mother of all Rattenkrieg.
Analyse [Syria] - Army Base "Brigade
80" (http://lacitech.blogspot.com/) has got to be my favorite blog post so far of the Syrian war.
I don;t consider the border crossing a loss.
It is not like the Russians or Iranians will not supply the SA.
A border crossing is not built up like the major metropolitan areas. When they want to the Iranians, Iraqi Shia militias, Hizbollah or the SA will take the border crossing.
If I were the Jordanians i would be more worried about ISIS/Al Nusrah propaganda infiltration, or smuggling around the border crossing. The support shown for ISIS at Ma'an was disturbing.but maybe that was more anti-government than pro-ISIS.
Aizino: Tunnels are not an option here. In Damascus the tunnels are widely used, but not in the southern or western suburbs. Why? I do not know. Also there are no any other rebels held position around Yarmouk, the closest one is Daraya, but it's too far for an effective tunnel, while there are no reports of IS units, just like in any other suburbs. The most advanced tunnel useage were in Jobar. ANNA news made a nice summary of how the newer tunnels looks like, here you can check it out (even SAA use it): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cswPn_LTU3o
In general now IS not present a danger in the South-West, only minor groups are there, like the ones in Yarmouk, or in Daraa the Yarmouk Brigade, and in the Qalamun the spillovers from Libanon. The operations in Al-Zabadani and general in the whole Qalamun, at these places the islamist rebels are not very effective. At all they not present real (or any) military force in the area yet, but they have a good media value.
Why does it an important news that the last Jordanian-Syrian border crossing has fallen? Maybe not that important, but in my eyes Jordan doing the same as Turkey, but with smaller scale. Jordan had it hands in the training and arming of the rebels on the south. This border crossing now could be used as another place to bring the supplies in if needed. SAA not lost too much, because the rest of the border were arleady uncontrolled, so this is just one of the many. Still the loss of this crossing is somehow important. The fact the the whole southern and western (except Libanon) border is uncontrolled is a huge thing.
Now flow away from the reality and play "what if". Jordan, just like the Sunni contries worry on Iran and Syria, and if the situation not change than they need to step out from the dark, like Saud Arabia did in Yemen bombing. Jordan has the means to let anyone inside Syria and put them 20km from Damascus. Now thats a thing that noone before could did in this war, and IS is still not even close to do so. I mean I'm off the ground by this thing, but Jordan has something in their hand, and this trick could has high value.
On how and when SAA will recapture the border crossings? Not any soon I guess. It's seems for SAA the borders in this area are not a priority and they just want to take the fight that they could win with minimal losses, just like they did in the past two years. This "minimise our casualties" strategy is okey, but it's will not cut off the enemy supply lines. Anyway I'm sure that the commanders at there know what they doing.
A bit off, but a few days ago, under another post you commented a very interesting long comment about events in Africa. I wanted to comment on it, but I forgot. It was a nice sumamry. I do not realy spend my time with Africa, don't know why, maybe it's too big, or lack in the wars I like to monitor. Anyway it was interesting to read about how you see the things going on there.
WNU: Thanks, as always. I'm not a fan of commenting on news and such things, but the community of this blog just so nice, it's good to post here.
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