© Konstantin Sazonchik/TASS
Reuters: Ukraine's ceasefire under pressure as one more serviceman killed
(Reuters) - A fragile ceasefire between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists came under renewed pressure on Sunday with the Ukrainian military reporting a serviceman had been killed and seven others wounded in rebel attacks.
The casualties, which follow the death on Saturday of another serviceman in shelling in the south east, occurred as the Ukrainian military and the rebels accused each other of violating a peace deal signed in Minsk, Belarus, in February.
The latest violence has revived concerns that the deal, brokered by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, could collapse, even though international monitors say violations were relatively limited.
WNU Editor: This is becoming the new normal in eastern Ukraine .... everyday a Ukrainian soldier or two will be killed and a few wounded. That if a Ukrainian soldier leaves his base, there is a very good chance that he will be shot at or bombed .... and absent any meaningful negotiations between the two sides .... the situation will only intensify. My prediction .... all it takes is one major incident to set the entire region back into full scale war ... and that is probably going to happen sooner rather than later.
8 comments:
War news what do you think about his analysis? It would be nice to hear your opinion and thoughts about it. http://eurasiangeopolitics.com/2015/04/22/six-possibilities-for-the-
donbas-by-years-end/
1.My thoughts of the analysis
I think he is to optimistic since both sides are not negotiating and the Minsk agreement is to fragile to last. Also he is underestimating the separatists and the risk of Ukraine trying to start a offensive if an incident happens.Since they now have Dmitry Yarosh as top military adviser which can increase the risk of full scale war.
2. A small analysis from me of the Ukrainian conflict
My prediction is that the war will resume during the summer but I hope I am wrong. Also there seems to be even more political instability in Kiev especially with the oligarchs. Poroshenko struggles to have them under his control, for example Akhmenov Ukraine's richest man who possibly financed the Donbass miners protest at Kiev 22 april 2015. Who probably organized this to not give Poroshenko any ideas that he could take his business assets. Also there is Kolomoisky who is also still in play even though he is not a governor any longer. He still has control over he Azov battalion and could be a possible danger still.
3.
But just asking what do you think will happen now in this crisis, are there some other factors I am forgetting to mention?
Thank you for the link Rhaegar. I am busy right now, but I will respond properly later tonight.
Ok, that is good to hear.
Just bumping, in case you forgot to answer the question.
I have not forgotten. I am just finishing doing a bunch of posts for WNU right now.
Ok, thank you, was just wondering. Also how do you manage to post so regularly as you do? Since it seems you are not sleeping or is the posting mechanic you use automated? Sorry if this is a bit off topic but it has bugged me quite some time of how you manage to pull of that trick.
It is not a trick Rhaegar .... it is hard work and I read everything. I do use Blogger's tool to post later if I want to .... that is why I sometimes have posts at 3:00 in the morning. I try to limit myself to 25 posts a day .... in the past I use to put 40 posts a day .... but I am now involved in another project so I am limited by time.
The Eurasian Geopolitics post is not a bad summary on the situation. As to what is my take .... Ukraine is so messed up right now .... politically and economically .... that in turn the security situation throughout the country is getting worse. People are becoming frustrated .... and they are hurting in their pocket books.
As to the war itself .... I have trouble seeing a full fledged war returning to the east .... the Ukraine army is not ready, and they will not be ready for a long time. Unfortunately .... low intensity warfare is now becoming the norm in eastern Ukraine .... and one bad incident could plunge everyone back into the fight .... even if they are not ready or prepared to fight.
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