The Hill: Iranian ship convoy moves toward Yemen, alarming US officials
U.S. military officials are concerned that Iran's support for Houthi rebels in Yemen could spark a confrontation with Saudi Arabia and plunge the region into sectarian war.
Iran is sending an armada of seven to nine ships — some with weapons — toward Yemen in a potential attempt to resupply the Shia Houthi rebels, according to two U.S. defense officials.
Officials fear the move could lead to a showdown with the U.S. or other members of a Saudi-led coalition, which is enforcing a naval blockade of Yemen and is conducting its fourth week of airstrikes against the Houthis.
Update #1: Iran Sends Ships Toward Blockaded Yemen Port, Raising Fears Of Escalating Conflict With Saudi Arabia -- IBTimes
Update #2: Iran Sparks Fears of Full-Scale War with Saudi Arabia by Sending Ships to Yemen -- IBTimes
WNU Editor: Saudi military officials have made it very clear that they will not permit any Iranian ships to enter a Yemeni port .... Iranian ships ‘not allowed’ in Yemeni waters (Al Arabiya). The Iranian President has stated that Iran's moves are purely defensive .... Rouhani says Iran's military strategy purely defensive (Daily Mail/AFP) .... but he is also "blasting" Saudi involvement in Yemen's war .... Rouhani says Saudis will harvest hatred in Yemen (YNet News). In this mix there are seven US Navy combat ships monitoring the situation .... Navy has seven combat ships around Yemen as Saudi-led blockade continues (Washington Post). My prediction .... this naval convoy is either a bluff from the Iranians (which I doubt), or a move by Iran to confront Saudi Arabia's blockade of Yemen (which I feel is what they are doing). This has the potential to be the spark of a major Middle Eastern war with deep sectarian roots that we have not seen in our lifetimes.
Update #3: This is interesting. Apparently Algeria is the middleman for communications between Iran and Saudi Arabia .... Algeria relaying messages between Riyadh, Tehran: Source (Middle East Monitor)
8 comments:
Unless someone blinks this is the moment of truth. Actually it doesn't matter if anyone blinks, for once it became this public it has become a matter of face, for both sides. If the Saudis allow these ship's passage that would be the collapse of their Yemeni campaign. After Tikrit the Irani's can't afford to back off, it would be the end of their ambitions in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, for no one would put any credence to any of their pronouncements. I also think this is Iran's way of testing the US, will we actually back the Saudis with more than words or not.
A lot of stuff happening here.
Algeria, I don't know what to think about that.
James .... these unnamed US officials who are expressing their concerns are totally justified in being worried .... this is something that no one can predict with certainty on how it will end. Yup .... a lot of stuff happening here.
As to Algeria .... I was always wondering who in the Arab world would be the intermediary (with no skin in the game) between Saudi Arabia and Iran .... I always thought it was Morocco .... but apparently not.
WNU,
It also strikes me that the Iranis are awful confident about some things to do this, especially in such a public manner.
James,
It's an international seaway, so any denial of Iranian passage, is not just an act of War against Iran, but a declaration contrary to the International Laws of the Sea.
Denial of passage puts everything back infront of the UNSC, and what's worse for The Saudi's, the UN.
Once through the straight, Iran can take a hard to port turn, and aim for a Yemeni Port, and as long as the Iranian ships are not carrying arms, once again, Big International Incident with the Saudi's as the bad guys, breaking laws, left right and center.
Jay,
I think in this case the ILS and the UNSC will only come into play in the post-mortem. Both sides have made public declarations difficult, if not impossible to back away from. I can see the Iranis' pulling up just short of the blockade and landing in the Socotras and establishing themselves there, but at some point they must supply the Houthis or their credibility takes a big hit. I also think this is a try to force a decision from us and split us from Saudi Arabia for good. As they say time will tell.
James,
The "weapons" the Houthi's need, they can't operate, SAM systems.
For the rest, well, they have more than they need right now.
They are more in need of food and fuel.
The Saudi's are sowing the whirlwind and will reap the results.
They have no end game and no ground game. They are going to lose, but still, it keeps them from flying airliners into skyscrapers, for now, so it's all "good".
I agree Jay. Maybe some Manpads will shoot down a fighter jet or two .... but what the Houthis really need now is food, fuel, and maybe shells for their artillery.
As for the Saudis .... the youngsters have taken over when the Old King passed away two months ago .... and we are not seeing how they govern. No plan. No strategy. No exit strategy. But they are having a great PR campaign trying to convince everyone that they are brave and resolute as they bomb a part of Yemen that is no stranger to foreign intervention, and are probably hoping right now that the Saudis will be stupid enough to launch a ground offensive against them.
As for Iran .... their options are limited. But they are going to run this as long as possible .... and they are going to try and make the Saudis bleed.
I just finished Weiss'
book, ISIS. It
answered a lot of
questions for me and
hinted that Daesh is
following the same
path of previous
revolutions made up
of true believers:
the French Revolution
and the Bolshevik.
On his suggestion, I'm
reading Darkness
at Noon by Koestler
and The Captive Mind
by Milosz.
ofs
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