U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif discuss seating arrangements for a meeting during a new round of nuclear negotiations in Montreux March 2, 2015. Reuters/Evan Vucci/Pool
Politico: A changed Iran? Obama aides divided
Some in the White House doubt a nuclear deal would alter the regime’s attitude toward the U.S.
Both President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have suggested that a nuclear deal with Iran could be a step towards thawed relations between Washington and Tehran. But experts and even some senior administration officials are more skeptical, warning that a deal might not moderate Iran’s clerical regime and could even embolden it.
Sources familiar with the Obama administration’s thinking describe a split among top officials over what to expect from Iran after a deal, a debate that could determine America’s wider strategy in the Middle East.
“So many proponents of the deal have argued that there will be a spillover effect — that if we can get this deal then we would be likely to alter Iran’s trajectory on its regional approach as well as its domestic policies,” says Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution.
WNU Editor: What's my take .... President Bush believed in 2003 that if the U.S. invaded Iraq, it would set into motion a momentum for democratic ideals, stability, and a more peaceful and secured region .... he unfortunately did not appreciate the deeply rooted cultural and religious dimensions (many of them destructive) that have dictated the course of events in the region for centuries, and how difficult it would be to change them. The same can be said about President Obama and his policy towards Iran .... he believes that they can change .... that they will alter their policies in view of U.S. willingness to negotiate and compromise. My prediction .... this policy will also fail .... the leadership of Iran have a radically different agenda from President Obama's, and none of them involve accommodating U.S. or any other non-Shiite group in the region.
3 comments:
WNU,
" the leadership of Iran have a radically different agenda", I would say radically different reality.
Cannot argue with that James.
I believed in the purple fingers. I see the 2009 Persian Spring as proof of that to some extent. IMO Obama helped kill the Person Spring. Some wags give the excuse that he was unprepared and new to the job.
Some projects have to be carried out for more than a short while and more than 1/2 a heart.
I would not call Western Democracy upward & upward as if it inexorably, monotonically increased.
What are the conditions for democracy. I have heard that the Wends of East Germany were democratic, but then there was pressure form the west and the war chiefs grew in importance. The emergency was long and it was village elders smelders.
I suspect the same thing happened with the Germanic Tribes. At one time they did practice horticulture and women were valued much more than during or immediately before the Migration period. After agriculture took over from horticulture the status of women lessened, their value was judge in the size of their brood and the deeds of their progeny. With agriculture I can see the Germans reaching the carrying capacity of the land and warring. About that time I guess what happened to the Wends, which we have some written historical account, happened to the Germanic people. The village elders were demoted and the war chief came to the fore.
(As an aside but it buttresses the point look at the god Odin. He was a death god that became a war god that became the ruler of gods. From death god to war god. When population was sparse people were just worried about life, death and the afterlife, but when they were jostling and rubbing elbows they need a war god? The mythology could tell you the condition of Europe.)
Rinse repeat, it does not matter if they are Germanic tribes, Wends (Slavs), African tribes, or bands of Chimpanzees.
What are the condition for democracy? It is not a given that the West will stay democratic. As de Tocqueville. I think the U.S. is pretty close to mob rule and has been since FDR and the great depression. There are a lot of similarities between those around FDR and Goebbels.
We are pretty close with neuroscience (& genetics) figuring out behavior, computer simulations, advances in psychology (2 steps forward 1 step back) to figuring it out. To just say that people in the Middle East are incapable of Democracy I think is throwing up one's hands.
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