Ammar Abdullah/Reuters
Nick Paton Walsh, CNN: Analysis: Syria's al-Assad regime in trouble
(CNN) A series of victories by Islamist rebels against the Syrian regime is raising the prospect of a sea change in the momentum of a war in which the endurance of Bashar al-Assad has for years seemed to many as a given.
Substantial territorial losses by the regime in the northern city of Jisr-el-Shugur and beyond, after the city of Idlib also fell to rebels, coupled with a relatively successful series of advances around the southwest of Damascus, are the result of new levels of cooperation among rebel groups that have spent the past years fighting each other for supremacy, to the detriment of their campaign against al-Assad. The rise of ISIS had also provided another obstacle to more moderate rebels in their fight against the Syrian regime.
Analysis And Commentaries On The Assad Regime Now Showing Signs That They Are Losing The Syrian Civil War
Syria’s Rebels on Winning Streak—In Alliance With Al Qaeda -- Jamie Dettmer, Daily Beast
Can Bashar Al-Assad Survive? Analysts Say Syria’s Regime Is In Trouble -- Inquisitr
A shift on the ground in Syria -- Washington Post editorial
Flash Points: Is Syria's Assad losing power? -- CBS
Assad loses battles as US, Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar and UAE arm Al Qaeda’s Syrian branches -- Debka
Climbing into Bed with Al-Qaeda -- Daniel Lazare, Consortium News
Turning the tide against Assad -- Hassan Barari, Arab News
The crown is slipping -- Daily Star editorial
Defeats leave Assad at weakest since Syria war began -- Tom Coghlan, The Australian/The Times
‘Syria regime in greater peril than any time’ -- Liz Sly, Gulf News/Washington Post
Noose tightens around Assad's neck -- Reuven Berko, Israel Hayom
In Syria, Signs That The Army Is Losing Ground To Rebel Groups -- NPR
Al-Qaeda’s ‘Moderate’ Allies Worry What Happens After North Syria Victory -- Antiwar.com
World View: War in Syria Turns More and More Against al-Assad -- John J. Xenakis, Breitbart
18 comments:
WNU Editor,
It's late spring again, fighting season has started with a new batch of terrorists, with new arms and better tactics,
so once again the MSM is full of "Assad is doomed" stories.
The new offensives will stall, the Regime will counter attack, the Jihadists will go back to eating each other over the new batch of loot,
the Syrians will get another horrific glimpse of what their new Overlords rule will look like, complete with vids,
And by the heat of late summer, it will be back to a stalemate with a minor adjustment of the lines.
i agree with everything you said there jay iran cannot allow syria to fall they will send in thousands more fighters
the opposition is increasingly united under the Al-Nusra Front, as they have assimilated or defeated most of the 'moderate' rebels and former brigades of the FSA. I think we will see less infighting and more coordinated and successful attacks like that on Jisr-al-Shugour or Idlib provice.
The last counter-attacks by Assad have failed miserably, with high casualties among the imported Shia fighters (north of Aleppo, and towards Deraa)
Syria's definitely a meat grinder but it seems the regime's running low on meat these days. And welfare and food stamps will run out eventually.
Peter,
Iran will not send in thousands of new fighters, nor will Hezboallah,
Both are reserving their strength for the "Next" Wars.
But the Syrians will get some new weapons, some counter tactic's to counter the "new" Jihadist tactic of using TOW missiles as artillary, and better ELINT gear to monitor the Jihadist comms.
phill, Anonamous,
The "new" jihadist attacks out of Jordan, (last fall) and out of Turkey this spring, are like all the "new" jihadist attacks in the past, with only a few new changes,
They are always "fresh", "well armed" and cohesive, because that's what 6 months and millions of dollars in a Saudi, Turkish or Jordanian training camp buys you.
6 months in and stalemates, attrition, discord and looting, always winds up in gang fights over turf amongst the so-called Alliance, and their "misrule" over the captive population always refill's the SAA ranks.
The only thing different this time, is they have US Encrypted Comms, enough TOW missiles, $58,600 A pop, to use them as artillary, artillary support out of Turkey, command and control out of Turkey and Jordan, and it appears, some direct support from Turkish Special Forces.
That Turkey, Jordan are starting to have to put manpower on the line, shows the weakness of the Jihadists.
Jay
Not much they can do to counter TOW missiles and even if they did monitor there comms they should be using code talkers by now.
And if Assad doesn't get reinforcements from Iran the regime's days are near....with or without new weapons and tactics.
I agree with WNU Editor and the other commenters that Assad's regime is in trouble. But I respectfully submit that its demise is not going to happen anytime soon.
1. The regime has unquestioned control of the air. The regime can use that control to resume chemical warfare anytime they like. Using such horrible weapons will be avoided until they are necessary, but Assad will not hesitate to use them when necessary. He already knows what the Western response will be.
2. It may be true that Alawite families are reluctant to send their sons to fight, especially given the casualties so far. But that reluctance will end if the alternative is a victory by ISIS or al Nusra, with the prospect of mass beheadings of all Alawite males and sexual slavery for all Alawite women. If faced with annihilation, what other option do the Alawites have?
3. For the Alawites, there is no alternative to Assad, at least if Syria stays one country. Perhaps if Syria breaks up and the Alawites retreat en masse to Latakia, the leaders of the new Republic of Latakia may be people other than the Assad circle.
4. Iran will not stand by and watch its client fall. Now Iran is not loyal to Assad personally, but Iran has national interests in preserving its influence in the territory from Iran's borders across Iraq and Syria, and into Lebanon. Iran also has religious reasons to resist a victory by Sunnis over Shiites and their allies.
5. I agree with Jay Farquharson that Iran has many ways to increase support for Assad which do not require additional men. But Iran and Hezbollah have plenty of young men available to fight if needed in this waar, with plenty of men left for the next war. Human casualties will not restrain Hezbollah or the Ayatollahs.
6. Iran can pressure Sunnis and states in the anti-Assad coalition in other ways. For example, I wonder if Iran would allow the Saudi coalition to have its way in Yemen if Iran gets its way in Syria.
7. I agree with Jay Farquharson: a few months ago a string of rebel defeats led to a flurry of articles predicting Assad's imminent victory. Those predictions were premature. The predictions now of rebel victory are also premature.
phill,
In the Northern assault, the Jihadist's fired roughtly 6,000 TOWs in 6 days, which amounts to over $3 billion dollars of Saudi money and almost 3/4's of the Saudi Inventory, (guess they figure they don't need them for Houthi tanks),
Mostly as LOS precision strikes against SAA Bunkers.
The SAA Bunkers have been built to survive 155mm artillary strikes, not Anti-tank rounds, so now they will beef them up with alternating layers of hard(rubble) and soft, (sandbags) so that they are 8 bags thick at the top of the wall, not two.
Next, they will work out the firing solutions for a TOW strike, and load up those grid co-ordinates for their 120mm mortar and artillary fire.
Last, they will "chicken wire" the "hell" out of their key positions, to predentonate the TOW on it's way in.
Code talkers don't work anymore, as there is a free app for decoding that, almost real time. Comm's are now digital, encrypted, and signal jump. With out matching codes and matching jumps, the message is lost. Previously to this new offensive, the Soviet ELINT gear the Syrians had, was good enough, now they need the latest Russian gear.
The SAA's problem isn't really manpower. They have 150k, plus 100k in the RDF's. The combination of the hybrid war, the multiple fronts, the need to assault an area yet protect the civillians inside, and the lack of a generational or multigenerational technical advantage, means the SAA would still have a hard time winning quickly, or decisively, even with a million man army,
As long as there are another 60,000 fresh jihadists from all over the world, backed by Saudi billions and Turkish and Jordanian SOF to throw into the fight.
6000 TOWs in 6 days is there video of that?
phill,
the jihadi vids are starting to come out, but I won't go to or link to those sites,
And they don't show much, as the strike is 4,000 to 6,000 meters out.
Publius,
Assad doesn't have any chemical or biological weapons any more, and by June, all the precourser chemicals will be gone as well.
It's not just the Alwites who are "concerned" about a Whabbist Jihadist victory, but also the Christians, the Armenians, the Kurds, the Druse, the Yardzi's, the Sufi's, the Samaritans,.......
Correct Jay .... it does not take many fighters to hold down an army. I recall reading somewhere that the IRA only had a few hundred dedicated fighters .... but they were able to give fits to a quarter of the British Army .... and the British were the best fighters at the time.
WNU Editor,
Aside from the TOW use, (innovative, effective, long range, expensive),
The part I find most interesting about this new offensive, is that in order to bump the stalemate, and achieve some modest gains,
The Saudi's Jordanians and Turks have had to come out of the shadows and onto the sidelines,
Put some skin in the game.
And this can now, very quickly go, with one missed step by the GCC, from a proxy war, to a regional one.
I suspect Iran will respond, but asymmetrically. It is their strong suite.
Left out of all this discussion, though, are the Russians.
Philip,
The Russians will run in ammo, armour, some more ground attack aircraft, recent models of their Jammers and ElINT gear,
They may add RT Sat Intel, the Peremeter anti-anti-tank missile system for armour upgrades, some heavy BPM-3's, and maybe deliver SS-300or 400 air defense systems.
Jay
Sure if you say so.
phill,
The Russians run a 6 to 8 ship supply run every 3 months to Syria, out of Crimea.
A logical next step for the Anti-Assad crew, when this offensive stalemates, is to try to do a no-fly zone.
The logical blocking step is better ground based air defences.
After that, the sudden influx of TOW's would suggest the uparmoured BPM-3, and the Russian self protection system for armour, as it's quicker and cheaper to retrofit it to T-54's, T-64's and T-72's than to ship full, complete upgraded tanks.
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