The Titus Arch in Rome that celebrates the destruction of the Temple in 70 AD
Mark Buchanan, Bloomberg: Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not
Is the world getting more peaceful? Some academics think so. New research, though, suggests they might be getting their math wrong.
Since 1945, armed conflicts between great powers have become much less frequent, and the annual number of fatalities has consistently declined. This has led some people -- among them the noted psychologist Steven Pinker, in his book "The Better Angels of Our Nature" -- to suggest that humanity may, perhaps, be growing out of war and moving into a more peaceful era. It's an idea that military historians find intriguing, and quite plausible.
Unfortunately, it may also be wishful thinking. Getting statistics right is hard, and it's especially hard when dealing with wars, which -- like earthquakes and financial markets -- follow a highly erratic pattern. Long periods of relative stability are punctuated by sudden, catastrophic events, such as World War II, which took the lives of millions. Statistically speaking, the data have "fat tails," meaning that a few observations account for most of the phenomenon being studied. As a result, indicators such as the average number of deaths per year can be misleading -- after any big event, things will always look like they're getting better.
WNU Editor: I have always been a student of history .... specifically wars and conflicts. I also study trends .... specifically on where wars and conflicts will be next month/year/decade. Is the world getting safer .... my answer would be no. The old nationalist/religious/tribal/sectarian conflicts are coming back with a vengeance .... and coupled this with a debt/financial/economic crisis facing most nations .... something is going to give. My only hope is that when that happens .... it is not a world war but regional and/or internal conflicts.
6 comments:
I remember reading Steven Pinker's Angels of our Better Nature, where he made a very grime picture of human history, and then went on to say that the world was getting to be more peaceful( in comparison).
But what stands out to me is that Pinker's book was published 3 years ago! Before the Islamic State, before Boko Haram's savagery, Yemen, S. Sudan, Donbass Coups in Egypt, Gambia and Burundi or even the true extent of the Syrian Civil War.
Senator Petronius Maximus became emperor during the late empire.
The Roman senate had the last laugh!
I'm confused why an image of the Arch of Titus is the header for this post when it's not linked as far as I can tell to the article.
The description is quite lacking as well, which Temple was destroyed??
The second Jewish Temple in Jerusalem - the picture depicts the spoils from the temple including the ark of the covenant as well as a menorah.
Incidentally, the candelabra (menorah) depicted is used as the emblem of the state of Israel.
The sacking of the Temple by Roman soldiers is just the spoils of a long ago war. My way of saying that nothing has really changed over the centuries .... it is just that the spoils are different today..
The Jews are from Israel, only those who let ideology take precedence over facts deny it.
I have traveled extensively around the world .... but not to the Middle East. Never been to Israel, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, or Iraq .... which is unfortunate because I love history and I hope that one day I will be able to see, walk, smell, and feel the energy of the place.
Sighhh .... but not now.
Post a Comment