J. Michael Cole, National Interest: Taiwan's Master Plan to Defeat China in a War
China could get more than it bargained for...
A consensus seems to have developed among a large number of defense analysts in recent years arguing that despite the balance of power having shifted in China’s favor, Beijing has no intention to use its military to invade Taiwan and thus resolve the Taiwan “question” once and for all. Doing so would be too costly, some argue, while others contend that Beijing can accomplish unification by creating enough economic dependence and incentives to convince Taiwanese over time of the “inevitability” of a “reunited” China.
Although these factors certainly militate against the desire to go to war over the island-nation, we cannot altogether discount the probability that the Chinese military would be called into action, especially if the rationale for launching an attack were framed in terms of a defensive war—China being “forced” to take action because of changing and “untenable” circumstances in its environment.
WNU Editor: I worked/lived in Fujian Province in the mid 1980s (it is the Chinese province across from Taiwan), and if the Chinese were to invade Taiwan it would be from this province that they would launch their attack. During my stay in the 1980s I noticed two things .... (1) the Chinese military did not have the means or resources to invade Taiwan, and (2) the overwhelming opinion in Fujian was against any Chinese attack .... more so than in the city of Xiamen where one can also see in the distance the Taiwanese island of Kinmen from its coast (see above image). This public mood was not a surprise .... even at that time there were many Taiwanese living in Fujian .... and they were bringing their money and economic expertise to the region thereby influencing opinion and creating jobs. On my last visit to Fujian a few years ago .... I noticed that nothing has changed since the 1980s. The Chinese military is nowhere to be seen, and the public mood in Fujian is more hostile to any notion of attacking Taiwan. But I understand that the Taiwanese do not want to take any chances ... hence their strategy to defend their island. My suggestion to the Taiwanese is to keep on doing what they have been doing for the past 30 years .... keep the economic and cultural links open, stay "low and quiet", and do not upset Beijing.
5 comments:
The United States should study this model in its relations with Russia and China and try to implement something similar!! Russia and China are the world's most powerful countries on earth today. The United States is no where close to either of these great powers and the trends indicate the United States assuming it survives at all will be even further behind these countries in the future than it is now.
One of the major threats to the US is an invasion of its mainland by Russia, China, Russia and China, or Russia, China and some combination of the BRICS. If this happened today, the US would have no realistic hope of prevailing without some type of supernatural miracle. Keep in mind this is if the invasion happened today and the trends are even more against the US.
"Doing so would be to costly..." and "...do not upset Beijing" are wise policies to live by. In America's case I'd add "do not upset Moscow" to this. With the right strategies we can make an invasion of the American mainland costly enough that Russia, China, and their allies may not consider it.
"....bringing their money and economic expertise to the region..." This varies on a thought I've had for quite some time. The US should be seeking to add value to the Russian and Chinese leadership, as these are the most powerful countries in the world and this is not changing in the foreseeable future. Furthermore the trends are a decline in US power which will be accelerated with the inevitable loss of the US dollar as world reserve currency.
The US has neither the "money" nor the "economic expertise" unless we count "made in China" sold in the US to make a real difference. Even so the loss of "made in China" hurts America far more than it hurts China. As was said in a movie once "make my day" is what the Chinese are likely saying and thinking should the Americans instantly act to cut this off.
Nevertheless this does present a model for Americans to try and follow where and when possible. Since America is not Taiwan, everything they do will not be implementable by us but it would be a good place to start. For starters, America should announce forcefully that its position on Ukraine is identical to that of Russia and any sanctions on Russia will vigorously opposed by the United States and the United States will use EVERYTHING in its power to break them. Sanctions are the gift that keeps on giving to Putin and company. Of course as pointed out previously should this lead to military conflict it will be America and not Western Europe who bears the brunt of Russia's military response.
B.poster
No
Phil,
No to what specifically? I attempt to offer constructive critique to America's policy decisions based upon sound and reasoned analysis and the response is simply "no." I'm trying to be respectful here.
B.poster
No to doing what Russia and China want us to do politically or militarily.
You beat the same drum a lot.
Of course we could simply stay out of the situations all together. This is a viable option. Personally, if as I've heard, Mr. Putin has taken to openly praising Josef Stalin, this doesn't seem to be guy any decent person would want to do business with and given China's close alliance with this despot not sure we'd want to do business with the Chinese either.
Personally I like the paraphrased quote of one of our founding fathers, John Adams I think, "while America should support liberty everywhere it ultimately can only guarantee its own. America cannot go through the world looking for monsters to slay."
As such, a great place to start would be working to improve our manufacturing base to lessen our dependence on "made in China." I've alluded to this in my several point plan for the advancement of America's national defense and economic advancement here and elsewhere that you've probably seen.
In any event, I think we can agree that getting involved in Ukraine and the pivot to Asia are dumb ideas. We can defend America and advance its interests but it is going to require realistic and honest assessments of where we are and what we are capable of. We can do this. We just need more realistic thinking among the people and the leadership.:-)
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