Thursday, May 28, 2015

Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Tanks are seen on a freight train shortly after its arrival at a railway station in the Russian southern town of Matveev Kurgan, near the Russian-Ukrainian border in Rostov region, Russia, May 26, 2015. Picture taken with a mobile phone. Reuters/Maria Tsvetkova

Max Fisher, VOX: Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?

Russia is massing troops and hundreds of pieces of heavy military equipment, such as tanks and artillery, along Ukraine's border. That's according to Reuters reporter Maria Tsvetkova, who saw and took photos of the deployments on Wednesday. The same day, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a think tank audience in Washington that Russia had deployed 250 aircraft and 700 pieces of heavy military equipment to the Ukrainian border as part of a military exercise.

Is this the start of another Russian invasion of Ukraine? Disturbingly, Tsvetkova reports that "many of the vehicles have number plates and identifying marks removed while many of the servicemen had taken insignia off their fatigues."

Update: Exclusive: Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness -- Reuters

WNU Editor: Ukraine is certainly preparing for a summer war .... and are deploying the forces to conduct them .... Poroshenko says Ukraine brings troop numbers to 50,000 in Donbas (Kyiv Post). Also .... low-intensity fighting has been the norm in much of eastern Ukraine .... escalating this low-intensity conflict into something bigger would not take much time or encouragement. But as to the question .... will Russia invade and/or spark another major escalating in the fighting .... I do not see that in play right now. Intimidate and scare Kiev .... Russia is doing that .... but actually launching a fulls scale invasion .... the military resources are just not there. Deploy 200,000 soldiers and call up another 200,000 reservists .... followed by the deployment of air force and attack helicopter units to bases near the Ukraine border .... that is when I will say that a major war is about to happen. But that is not happening now.

4 comments:

Jay Farquharson said...

WNU Editor,

Just the ususal drumbeats:

"Reuters is always willing to be helpful with this. Consider its record of uncritical Exclusive News on the topic:

March 13 2014 Russia Masses Troops Near Ukraine

April 10 2014 NATO Chief: 40,000 Russian Troops Amassed Near Ukraine's Border

April 13 2014 Well-equipped Russian troops amass near Ukraine border -Britain

May 28 2014 Russia May Have 40,000 Troops Near Ukraine's Border: US sources

July 14 2014 NATO estimates Russia has 10,000-12,000 troops near Ukraine border

July 25 2014 More than 15,000 Russian troops along Ukraine border -U.S. envoy

July 30 2014 Russia increasing troops, moving towards Ukraine border

August 6 2014 NATO says Russia could be poised to invade Ukraine

August 11 2014 Ukraine says Russia has massed 45,000 troops on joint border

November 4 2014 Russian troops moving closer to Ukraine border: NATO chief

November 7 2014 NATO sees increase in Russian troops along Ukraine border

March 28 2015 Russia May Have 40,000 Troops Near Ukraine's Border: US sources

May 27 2015 Exclusive: Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness"

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/05/reuters-exclusive-russian-troops-near-ukraine.html#comments

War News Updates Editor said...

I like this summary Jay. Thank you.

Unknown said...

a massive russian attack on ukraine as stated by wnu will be done like there exercises kiev and nato wont know what hit them until it was all over all there be massive ukraine dead and wounded and armour destroyed

Jay Farquharson said...

PETER st. john,

Russia will not invade the Ukraine, as long as the "супермаркет" and the North Wind keep working.

Russia want's Novorussia to stay in the Ukraine, under the Minsk II Agreement rules.