Gulf News/AFP: May deadliest month of 2015 in Syria
6,657 people killed throughout the country including 1,285 civilians
May was the bloodiest month so far this year in Syria, with at least 6,657 people killed throughout the war-ravaged country, a monitor said Monday.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the toll includes at least 1,285 civilians, more than half of whom were killed in regime air raids.
The UN’s Syria peace envoy Staffan de Mistura condemned government aerial bombardment of civilian areas over the weekend, calling it “totally unacceptable”.
The Observatory said rebels and Kurdish fighters made up 793 of those killed in May, while militants from factions including Daesh and Al Qaida’s Syrian affiliate Al Nusra Front numbered 2,109.
Another 2,242 regime forces were killed, most of them soldiers, the Observatory said.
WNU Editor: The Syrian military suffered 2,200 fatalities in May .... or 75/day. At this rate .... I have trouble seeing how the Syrian army can sustain itself if the conflict continues into next year.
11 comments:
WNU Editor,
The Syrian Observatory's casualty claims have always been suspect.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Observatory_for_Human_Rights
Jay ... I know that these numbers are an estimate based on their own interpretation of the data .... which should always be taken with a grain of salt. But the war is changing and intensifying .... and my gut is telling me that these numbers are on the low-end.
WNU Editor,
There was a looooong report, by Rand on the failures in Iraq/Syria/Yemen/Lybia by the US Government and Military. In the short form, the US has and continues to make decisions based on beliefs and ideology, rather than facts on the ground.
What was the money quote back in the day?
Oh yeah, "The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."[2]
In the absence of hard fact, due to a lack of reporting on the ground, a lot of "reporting" is propaganda and this propaganda is often aimed at "creating" narratives, or reinforcing existing perceptions.
So you get the Richard Engle propaganda, or for another example,
The single source story of Russians evacuating, in Saudi media, when according to Larov, all the Russian advisors were evacuated in the fall of 2013, and that Syrian training now takes place in Russia.
In a summary in the spring, on one of the Assad is falling stories I noted that the war was far from over, but there were some predictable events that would happen.
For example down thread, now that summer has hit, ISIS is attacking and taking territory from another rebel group, that they had partnered with in the spring assaults, as I had predicted.
I get the feeling that a lot of the "news" coming out of the region, is aimed at "pushing" the decisions of the "deciders" in Washington.
It only took a few months into the Syrian civil war for the news coming out of the region (from Western sources) to "push the decisions of the deciders in Washington". I will not argue about that.
As to Russian advisers in Syria .... I know what Lavrov and other Russian officials have been saying for the past few years .... I posted stories a year or two ago that Russia had abandoned their listening posts in Syria. But I do know that Russian advisers/contractors are in Syria to coordinate shipments. They may not be involved in the fighting, but these men are serving in an intelligence capacity. But if they are the ones who leaving ....
On a broader scope. jay .... I have been following and posting on this conflict since Day One .... something is changing. I cannot put my finger on it .... I could be (and probably am) completely wrong .... but the dynamics on the ground are shifting.
WNU Editor,
My understanding is that the coordination and distribution is run out of the Embassy, and the manpower aspects on the ground, run in and out on the Syrian Express. Russia, other than the collapse of a Russian PMC last summer, does not appear to be "abandoning" Assad, but somebody is sure trying hard to create that narrative,
A "light at the end of the tunnel" meme for the anti-Assad groups.
As near as I can tell, the three major changes are:
- regional support for even the most extremist anti-Assad groups has gone from covert, to overt, and I suspect that this will continue, to the point of trying to use airpower and SOF in support of Al Quida offences,
- trial balloons being floated in the US MSM by the Ususal NeoCon suspects suggesting that the Sunni's/ISIS/Al Quida should be "allowed" to have their calphinate in parts of Syria and Iraq, and that it would be a win-win for the "US",
- the Assad Regime seems to be giving up on the "hold everything to the last man" strategy in the south east and instead, is focused on keeping a viable land area along the Med, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. My guess is that the regime see's no " value", in defending radicalized Sunni areas, from the jihadist Sunni's.
ISIS and Al Quida are pretty good at eliminating "moderate" Sunni's either fighting against the regime, or not willing to fight for the Regime.
It's the end game.
I agree with WNU Editor: the dynamics of the Syrian Civil War are changing. Here is my hypothesis: Assad's interests are diverging from the interests of his allies. Here is the rationale for that conclusion.
1. Assad's dependable Syrian armed forces are drawn primarily from his own minority religious sect. The Alawites are relatively few in number and they have sustained significant casualties among their fighting age male population. This is true regardless of whether the casualties are higher or lower than reported by SOHR. If the Alawite male population were the only fighters opposing ISIS, al Nusra, and the other rebels, I would agree with those analysts who warn that anti-rebel forces are approaching exhaustion.
2. Assad has allies. Hezbollah has significant forces in Syria, and its leader recently admitted. So does Iran. Both Hezbollah and Iran have plenty of men, so from a manpower perspective the pro-Assad side has ample reserves. As both WNU Editor and Jay pointed out, Russia also has men in Syria, but they are largely not on the front lines.
3. We must distinguish the interests of Assad's family and the Syrian ruling elite from those of its allies.
a. Obviously Assad personally and his clique want (and need) to rule forever, or risk Qaddafi's fate. Note well that only the Alawite religious minority and some other Syrian minorities have an interest in Assad's regime's survival.
b. Neither Hezbollah, Iran, nor Russia require Assad nor the existing Syrian elite to stay in power. For Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, it is sufficient if the rulers of Syria are not ISIS, Nusra, or any other Sunnis extremists who would be hostile to their respective interests.
c. For Hezbollah and Iran, their interests are largely to prevent a Sunni victory in the religious struggle with Sunni Islam. Iran also has a geo-political interest (as a nation state) in preserving a swath of territory across Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon.
d. For Russia, their interests are to prevent the emergence of a state hostile to Russia in the territory now called Syria. For example, if ISIS or Nusra triumphs, it is hard to see either of them allowing Russia to keep its naval basing rights in Syria. Russia also wants generally to support its ally Iran for many reasons, including the useful (from Russia's perspective) disorder Iran inflicts on the West.
4. As Assad's position becomes more desperate, the difference in his interests from those of his allies will become more evident. From Assad's perspective, I expect him to use whatever means he has to stay in power. This includes chemical weapons. I know that Jay Farquharson says that Assad no longer has chemical weapons, but a steady stream of reports from Syria contradict that. Nusra and ISIS (as well as other rebels) may also have such horrendous weapons.
5. From Iran's and Russia's perspectives, Assad's increasing weakness and dependence on them makes him and his clique expendable, if alternatives can be found to preserve their respective interests, Russia and Iran would not hesitate to dump Assad and the rest of the ruling elite.
6. All the players in Syria are scorpions in a bottle. If their interests diverge, they will turn on each other ruthlessly. For example, I would not doubt that Assad would kill or take hostages of the Russians in Syria if the need arose. If ISIS or Nusra managed to capture some Russians, I am confident that they would chop their heads off or burn them alive in a televised spectacle. Putin certainly wants to avoid repeating President Carter's experience. if I were Putin, I would get my people out of Syria too.
Publius,
Assad definitely has to make some big decisions quick. I don't think Hezbollah in the west and the Shia militias in the east are good enough to take ISIS, especially the current ISIS which has improved markedly lately operationally. I'm thinking the next big one in this intra mural fight will be the Beqaa valley, Isis attacking Hezbollah defending. I think I'll really go out on a limb here, I've got a feeling and that's all it is, a feeling, that Hezbollah is mostly a paper tiger and will fall to pieces quickly if pushed hard enough.
James,
Right now, the Assad Regime and Hezboallah are not "toe to toe" with ISIS. They are toe to toe with the Al Quida dominated "Front", while ISIS is busy in that "Front's" rear, attacking and defeating the SDF's that the "Front" left behind to " hold" areas. Right now, it's almost a three way fight, at times, it's been a Six way fight.
It's rarely been an Assad/ISIS fight, as ISIS prefers to take on other anti-Assad forces, rather than regime forces. ISIS has not done well the few times they have gone head to head against the Regime.
If there is fighting this year in Lebanon, I'll wager it's the IDF against Hezboallah, as in Arnsal and Tripoli, ISIS and AlQuida are currently infighting.
how can you think or say syria cannot sustain they may not be able to but iran ,hezbollah will make up for it iran-iraq war went on for 8 yrs so theres plenty to come off shelf from there no ending in this war for long time with iran hezbollah suppying the numbers if hezbollah were able to throw in bigger numbers it would make a differnce as there so much better than syrian army
PETER,
Hezboallah is not "better" than the SAA, they are different organizations, with different training, different equiptment and different tactics
Hezboallah is a mix of light Infantry and guerrilla forces trained to fight in urban areas and defence. The Syrian Arab Army is a Soviet Doctrine "heavy" Army that is predominany organized, armed and trained for mobile defence, that has been "learning" urban combat slowly and the "hard" way.
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