IBTimes: Iran denies sending troops to defend Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria
The Iranian government has denied sending troops to help shore up the faltering regime of President Bashar Assad in Syria, despite long-standing rumours that Iranian forces are in the country.
At a weekly press briefing in Tehran foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said reports on "the military presence of countries friendly to Syria" were "unfounded," according to French news agency AFP.
Iran has long supplied financial and political support to Assad as well as military advice but Afkham said Syria did not need help from Iran in fighting off Isis, rebel forces and other groups. "The Syrian government and people have the capacity to resist and will continue to do so", she insisted.
Update: Iran Denies Having Soldiers in Syria -- Haaretz
WNU Editor: Officially .... Iran is denying that they are sending soldiers to fight in Syria (see above video). But at the same time they are also .... officially speaking .... requesting volunteers to go and fight in Syria .... Iran: General Urges Recruits to Fight in Syria as Assad Stumbles (Arutz Sheva). The problem for Iran and for their allies in Syria is that the Syrian regime is losing soldiers and they need replacements .... more to the point .... the Syrian government has already requested 100,000 fighters from Iran .... Another clear sign the Assad regime is getting desperate (Business Insider). I suspect that this is a "bridge too far" for Iran .... and sending 100,000 soldiers will make their claims of not sending soldiers hypocritical at best. My prediction .... expect Iranian "requests" for volunteers to go and fight in Syria to increase in the coming weeks/months.
1 comment:
In my view, it is premature to predict Assad's fall. The correlation of forces seems to be as follows:
1. Assad's forces. There is no doubt that Assad's forces are tired and stretched thin. Several articles report young Alawite men avoiding military service. The war is over 4 years old and while the battle lines have moved around, the war does not seem to be nearing an end. Unlike his Sunni opponents, Assad does not have a steady stream of fresh recruits arriving from around the world to replace casualties. But the regime controls the air and can bomb anywhere at will. The regime has chemical weapons to use if needed.
The regime wanted to control territory throughout Syria in order to support its claim to be a national Government. The regime is now giving up that aspiration to concentrate on keeping Damascus, Lattakia, and territory contiguous to those areas. The rest of Syria is beyond the regime's grasp for now. I view the regime's losses as withdrawals rather than defeats following a decision to stay.
2. Assad's allies. Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran share an interest in preventing victory by the coalition seeking to overthrow Assad. Their reasons vary, including religious, geopolitical, etc. I doubt any of Assad's allies care whether he personally survives or not. But some Syrian must rule the Syrian rump, and for now Assad is preferable to any replacement. Assad's allies have money, weapons, and men in plenty to replace Assad's weakening Alawites. It seems that Hezbollah has taken over operations in Western Syria near Lebanon, while Iran is moving to protect Damascus. With less territory to defend and more forces, the Syrian rump will be harder to conquer.
3. The anti-Assad coalition. We must remember that, for most of the anti-Assad forces, the war is not primarily about overthrowing Assad. To Isis, Nusra, and most of the "moderate" rebels, whether Assad keeps control of a Syrian rump is less important than which of them controls the rest of Syria, i.e. the part that Assad does not control. With the exception of Damascus, which all the factions and Assad want, I think that any of the factions would allow Assad to rule Lattakia (for now) if they could have the rest of Syria. As Assad withdraws to his keep, I think that the fighting among the factions will increase as they turn on each other. I see no short term victory by any of the factions. ISIS and Nusra both have money and young men streaming into Syria from around the planet ready to fight. I think that Assad, Iran, and Russia calculate that, as Assad withdraws, the war will gradually shift to a fight among the factions allied against Assad.
4. We must also recall that, for ISIS and Nusra, the Syrian war is merged with the war in Iraq. That adds more complexity which is beyond the scope of this thread. I don't see this war ending anytime soon.
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