Several times during the cold war, miscommunication almost led to nuclear conflict. Now, amid tensions over Ukraine, Russia and the West are showing a new failure to communicate.
Washington; and Moscow — Knowing your enemy doesn't just win the war. Sometimes, it also can be critical to keeping the peace.
Such was the case in 1983, during a massive NATO drill to test the alliance's capabilities to respond to a Soviet invasion of western Europe. Unknown to its planners, however, "Able Archer," which envisaged using nuclear weapons to halt the enemy advance, looked to Soviet eyes exactly the way Soviet intelligence had predicted a US nuclear "first strike" would unfold.
Though many of the details of how war was averted remain undisclosed, experts on both sides say the world came to the very brink of nuclear Armageddon through a chain of preventable misunderstandings. It was one of several cold war close calls that convinced Moscow and Washington to step up military contacts and establish formal, as well as informal, channels of communication that might make all the difference in an emergency.
WNU Editor: In the past few months I have been saying the same thing .... the old back-channels, relationships, and lines of communications that were built up during the Cold War are no longer being used between Moscow and the West. This is (in my opinion) an incredibly dangerous development that an now only be resolved at the Presidential level. Unfortunately .... Putin has been shut out from the West, and President Obama has shown no interest in showing any accommodation to Moscow. Hence ... no one is talking to each other .... and the military drills (and threats) continue.
Update: This is so true .... Future Is Bleak for U.S.-Russian Relationship (Kevin Ryan, Moscow Times).
2 comments:
Thing is, will things improve with a new administration?
I actually think they might just get worse...
I don't think Mr. Putin is very interested either. I think the case could be made the US has also been "shut out" from Russia as well. Of course in Mr. Putin's case Russia is the more powerful country militarily and I suspect Mr. Putin is aware of this.
You are correct that this is a very dangerous situation that hopefully diplomacy could resolve. As a start, I'd suggest the US withdrawing all forces and support for former Soviet/Eastern Bloc countries now in NATO including Ukraine. The Russians seem to have believed they had an agreement with the US that NATO/the US would not expand into these areas. Whether or not such an agreement actually existed (it probably did not as the proponents of such do not seem to be able to produce the text of the agreement) is irrelevant as the Russians think seem to think it did. In exchange, Russia would agree to withdraw all support from Iran and Cuba. Given the fact that these nations are bitter enemies of America and pose an enormous threat to it, the removal of Russian support to these countries would make them much easier for us to deal with. Also, with the removal of NATO/US forces from former Soviet Bloc and Soviet countries should help reduce tensions between us and Russia.
Can such an agreement be reached or has distrust reached to high of a level? I would agree that this is a very dangerous situation that needs to be rectified, however, you seem to imply that only Barack Obama can solve this problem. I respectfully disagree. He can only do so much. For example, if Western European nations choose to "shut out" Mr. Putin there's precious little he can do. Now if you mean by "presidential level" both Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin should/need to take concrete steps to resolve I agree wholeheartedly.
As to who is going to take the first step, if I were POTUS, I would. A great place to start would by extricating us from Ukraine by any and all means necessary. I think we jumped into this one without even fully realizing just who it is we are supporting here. Secondly, I would use American strength within reason to assist Russia in their position regarding the FIFA investigations and working to ensure Russia maintains the 2018 World Cup games. While perhaps a small step, I do think it has enormous potential to foster goodwill or at least to eliminate some bad will. Extricating ourselves from Ukraine and assisting Russia with the World Cup have virtually no downside for us and have massive upside potential. As such, starting in these areas seems to be a no brainer.
While many might disagree, if I'm right the policy is correct, recognize Russia's superior military position relative the United States and act accordingly. A variation of the Taiwanese model when dealing with China might help us here. 1.) Taiwan has acted to increase trade ties with China whereby China receives vital things from Taiwan that are not easily replaced. How can we add value to Mr. Putin and Russia? 2.)Ensure military and defense capabilities are strong enough that the enemy or potential enemy, in this case Russia, would consider attacking us to be to costly to seriously consider it.
I agree that the current situation CANNOT continue. I pray both sides can find a way to resolve this situation diplomatically. If America is to do so, it will be vitally important for Western European nations to be on the same page. A bit off topic but I've long suggested the US needs to sever all ties with those people forthwith!!
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