How The Iranian Nuclear Deal Resets International Relations And Diplomacy In The Middle East

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif (R) as they arrive to resume nuclear negotiations in Montreux March 2, 2015. Reuters/Evan Vucci/Pool

Pepe Escobar, Asia Times: Historic Iran nuke deal resets Eurasia’s ‘Great Game': Escobar

This is it. It is indeed historic. And diplomacy eventually wins. In terms of the New Great Game in Eurasia, and the ongoing tectonic shifts reorganizing Eurasia, this is huge: Iran — supported by Russia and China — has finally, successfully, called the long, winding 12-year-long Atlanticist bluff on its “nuclear weapons.”

And this only happened because the Obama administration needed 1) a lone foreign policy success, and 2) a go at trying to influence at least laterally the onset of the new Eurasia-centered geopolitical order.

So here it is – the 159-page, as detailed as possible, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA); the actual P5+1/Iran nuclear deal. As Iranian diplomats have stressed, the JCPOA will be presented to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which will then adopt a resolution within 7 to 10 days making it an official international document.

WNU Editor: I read the Russian version of the Iranian nuclear agreement, but for those who have a few hours to spare the English version is here .... Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As to what is my take on the above commentary .... it is true that in terms of weapon and defense expenditures, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states dwarf Iran's expenditures. But Iran uses its military and Revolutionary Guards in a manner that is consistent with asymmetrical warfare and tactics that are not conventional .... a modern military has not been its priority .... though this nuclear agreement and sanctions relief may now change everything. Iran's policy is also one that actively supports (with military assistance) Shiite communities in other countries that are now embroiled in conflict .... Syria, Iraq, and Yemen come to mind .... a policy that has clearly disturbed its Sunni neighbors even though these countries are also now actively pursuing military options to support their Sunni brethren. I expect these tensions to remain, and if the situation deteriorates in any of these conflicts (especially in Syria or Iran) .... I expect Iran to then escalate its involvement. On the international scene .... Iran is now well positioned to sign agreements with international oil firms to modernize and develop their oil industry. I also expect this agreement will open the floodgates for non-oil international companies to enter Iran .... how they fare while dealing with the Iranian bureaucracy and Iranian government policy coupled with the local business communities ... now that is a different story. But the big boost will be in the oil industry .... Iran wants to up its oil production and to take market share, and the various national oil companies want to take advantage of that .... that action alone will be changing the dynamics of international diplomacy when Iran starts forging ties with Asia and elsewhere. As to its nuclear program .... in ten years the provisions of this agreement are no longer valid .... and if the Iranian hardliners are still in control .... they will pursue this program to its logical end, and while they may not build a bomb, they will be just a step or two away from building it, which is what I always believed is what they had intended to do. It is that possibility that is disturbing everyone who is familiar with nuclear proliferation .... perception plays a huge role in international diplomacy, and the perception among many in the Middle East is just that .... Iran wants to be positioned to have a nuclear weapon .... deal or no deal.