Fars News/Reuters
Robert Beckhusen, War Is Boring: Stop Freaking Out — Iran’s Military Is Weak Even Without Sanctions
Tehran remains behind its regional rivals.
Iran and the P5+1 coalition of six major powers have reached a historic deal to halt Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program. Some months from now, as Iran verifies compliance with the agreement, a series of debilitating international sanctions targeting the country’s economy and military will disappear.
To be sure, the deal is good for the Iranian military. It will free Iran to make arms deals abroad, replace some of its largely 1970s and 1980s-vintage technology and increase revenue through oil exports. In short, Tehran’s armed forces are likely to strengthen.
“If the deal is reached and results in sanctions relief, which results in more economic power and more purchasing power for the Iranian regime, it’s my expectation that it’s not all going to flow into the economy to improve the lot of the average Iranian citizen,” Gen. Martin Dempsey, America’s top military officer, said during a June 9 visit to Jerusalem.
WNU Editor: On a small scale .... one should be worried. Terrorism, asymmetric warfare, support for groups like Hezbollah, etc. .... the Iranian military machine plays a critical role and that role should should never be underestimated. But looking at the big picture .... I have not been impressed with the Iranian military or the Revolutionary Guards. They are now involved in multiple wars .... Syria, Iraq, and Yemen .... and they are clearly not winning. No surprise .... they lack the sophisticated weaponry and tools needed to fight these wars .... and to obtain those tools will involve investing tens of billions of dollars over the next decade or two to just catch up to neighbors like Saudi Arabia or Israel. Will Iran make this investment .... my prediction is that they will .... but then again .... it is going to take them a long time to even come close to matching what their neighbors have.
8 comments:
To invest in high tech and infrastructure means investing in engineers and highly skilled skilled blue collar labor. Sooner or later they want more.
IMO it is harder to continue the beatings until morale improves when it comes to high tech. I could be wrong.
But if I am correct then they need more sugar and less vinegar. It means less absolute power for them.
I think China and mite play a part in making Iran stronger
(Russia)
(Obama)
He's already done that he let them off for murdering Americans who else can kill Americans an get away with it
I'd also just like to say I'm not against Obama I'm just not a fan of his policies saying that I think he did well on his word thy he won't go to war with Iran
Doesn't mean they can't get better.
I'd also just like to say I'm not against Neville chamberlain. I'm just not a fan of his policies saying that, I think he did well on his word that he won't go to war with Germany.
Neville only gave away the Sudentenland. Now it was ethnically German and should have been part of Germany. Germany got carved up pretty good after WW1. It was not quite a rump state, but something like that was the intention of France (It to 3 times at the butcher to carve up Poland).
The rub is that Czechoslovakia had build a belt of fortification in rough terrain, the mountainous border with Germany, which happened to be in the Sudentenland.
Chamberlain could have made this deal and made it work if he had moved troops and made other concrete demonstrations of support for the integrity Czechoslovakian territory minus the German part. In addition while sympathizing about the carve up due to Versailles he could have read Hitler the riot act (again backed up by explicit, concrete commitments) Moving a training battalion of British troops to Prague. They would be no more than speed bump someone might say but they would also act as a trip wire.
WW2 would have started earlier than when the Germans invaded Poland (but i have trouble dating the start of WW2. I do know the official date, but when I look at Italian conquest of Ethiopia and the Japanese in Asia I might want to move the date or come up with a different definition or concept of events.
WW2 starting earlier is not necessarily a bad thing. It could have been a shorter less bloody war. Britian was gearing up for war. But they felt far behind and this lead to Chamberlain's perhaps being timid.
The thing is that Britain was racing to catch up. At the same time Germany was racing to catch up. The German General staff told Hitler that Germany would not be prepared to go to war until the mid to late 1940s.
So if both Britain and German were behind starting WW2 off early would not necessarily make it bloodier or longer. Bother sides were unprepared and could pint to deficiencies in men, equipment and training. Yet in May 1940 when the hot war started Britain and France and more tanks of better quality. Air power was about equivalent too.
Given all that IMHO Chamberlain should have taken a harder line at Munich.
Obama should have taken harder line now. We will rue the day.
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