BBC: Syria: President Assad admits army strained by war
The Syrian army has been forced to give up some areas in order to retain others in the war against rebels, now in its fifth year, President Bashar al-Assad has acknowledged.
The Syrian leader also said the army faced a shortage of soldiers.
A day earlier, he declared an amnesty for draft-dodgers and deserters.
The conflict is thought to have left more than 230,000 dead and displaced millions. Vast areas are no longer under government control.
WNU editor: Not an upbeat assessment on the war from the Syrian President .... but a more realistic assessment on what is happening, and is the direction/war strategy of the Syrian government right now. A summary on the important points are here .... Here’s what you need to know about Assad's Damascus speech (Albawaba).
More News On Syrian President Assad's Damascus Speech
Syria’s Assad Admits War Is Taking Toll on Government Forces -- WSJ
Syria's Embattled President Admits Manpower Shortage -- NYT/AP
Assad says Syrian army 'fatigued' but will prevail -- AFP
Syria's Assad admits army struggling for manpower -- Al Jazeera
Assad promises Syrian army victory despite shrinking ranks -- The Telegraph
President Assad urges Syrians to join army amid troop shortage -- Sydney Morning Herald
Syria's Assad hails Iran, Hezbollah roles in fight against rebels -- Xinhua news
Assad: Syrian regime is short of troops and losing ground -- Channel 4 News
Assad admits Syrian army focused on holding key areas -- Irish Times
Assad: 'Defeat Does Not Exist' for Syria -- VOA
2 comments:
Seems like I'm running out of free space again, so posting my comment in two part:
----------- Part 1 -----------
I watched the whole speech, however it not realy said anything new. It was just a message to the syrian people to get a report on what's going on, and a message to foreigners that the government not yet gave up. This amnesty deal is just one of the many they had before, however they may not attract everyone, but even if just a single person take the chance, thats make it worth to do. I seen the previous ones wroked in some areas of the country, even if not in large scales.
The BBC report above is may be correct on some aspect, but as I said many times before wars are more complex than they looks at first. SAA may lack on manpower, which came from casualties and desertion from the early part of the war, but desertion not really exist in that scale anymore. Those who wanted to join to the rebels, did it before 2012, all those who are still in the army, they are there for a reason. The main reason of the shortage in menpower is because the frontlines in Syria are huge, curvy and as an addition the sides have pockets of resistances inside each others territory. For such situation when you fighting on hundreds of KM long frontlines, there will never be enough soldier to fill the holes.
Assad talked about the option of defeat and how it does not exists for them, while on the BBC analyst they talking about how the SAA can't handle everything they assigned to do, because of being overused already. But in reality as I see, there is realy no option as loosing for SAA, because this would mean death for them. We can come up with things as the "Rebels only want Assad to go and in such case they would not hurth anyone and there would be peace in Syria", but thats just not how it work. I don't know how others are with it, but I seen enough execution videos, and in the spring Idlib offensive, there were execution of Shias and Alawits, even without IS. For SAA soldiers it's not a fight for save Assad, it's a fight for save themself and their peoples from death, execution, or being sold as slaves and so on.
----------- Part 2 -----------
On the military side the past months were interesting, all sides had gains and losses, but the start of autumn will be critical. The rebel forces from Idlib are in silence for way too long time, they probably working on the next attack which I expect to happen in two possible direction. First they can go to northern Latakia, to the already rebel held areas and advance toward sout-west or south. By this the cut a hole or even could reach the separation of the north-western Kessab area from Latakia mainland, or they could advance west from Al-Ghaab and those who control the highland, can control the road toward Jish al Shugul. Both which would be a great win for them. Need to mention the defenderrs here are very weak, mostly NDF forces, and the terrain is mountain like, but the rebel's capabilities are perfectly fit for such a warfare. While on the other hand they could go toward the city of Hama, where from they were kicked out last year, after their failed attack on the City's western side. This attack is not a good military decision, but attaking a major city is a great press and media win. Also SAA forces are stronger in north Hama area than in Latakia. If I would choose I would go toward Latakia.
Rebels on the south, in Daraa area made an attack just a month ago, they failed, so probably there will be no major attacks untill late autumn or winter. Aleppo is a no advance area for every faction, nothing new here, other than Colonel Tiger were reportedly moved to here from Tadmur, which make some wonder on why. If I would need to guess Nubl and Zahraa are the key. Earlier SAA made an offensive toward Tadmmur, however they halted at the outskirt as it was expected, but from there they have a card to attack on the city whenever they want. For SAA the fight against IS is not set on Tadmur itself, but in the space between Tadmur and Damascus. IS advanced south of T4 air base, and reports even say they are attacking the base itself. Soon after the first such reports were made the attack toward Tadmur were halted. I seen a SAA military map of the offense, and even if it was not very detailed, it's still would have phases left. IS advanced south from T4 and even 20 KM to the direction of south-west. SAA made a counter attack on that area, captured towns but the problem is not fixed. I spend a lot of time to track back the locations showed from IS videos in this region, and the penetrated in depth. This frontline and their attack would worth a hour of talk or more, but let's keep it sort, IS has the possibility to advance in this area. There is still so much left from this year, the rest would be interesting, or at least for some.
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