Ukraine Crisis -- News Updates July 16, 2015

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko addresses deputies before voting on a draft law at the parliament in Kiev, Ukraine, July 16, 2015. Reuters/Valentyn Ogirenko

VOA: Ukraine Moves Toward More Autonomy for Separatist Regions

Ukraine's parliament approved a draft law Thursday to grant greater autonomy to the separatist-held areas in the country’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

As stipulated by the cease-fire agreement reached last February in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, President Petro Poroshenko submitted the bill to parliament to give the areas that have proclaimed themselves "people's republics" some powers of self-rule.

Visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland called Thursday’s vote "yet another historic day" in a violence-ridden country, where 6,500 people have been killed since the beginning of the conflict in April of last year.

WNU Editor: What's my take on the Ukraine government now moving towards giving the regions more self rule .... too little and too late. It is strange to see that what I was hoping for (and pushing for) over a year ago is now exactly what the Ukraine government .... who initially thought what I and others were proposing a year ago as unacceptable .... is now acceptable. Unfortunately .... good will and trust has been replaced in the east with hate and anger and no desire for negotiating or compromising with Kiev. For any hope of this working my proposal to the Ukraine government is too withdraw all military forces from the front, and to disband the many militias that are now a major destabilizing force who are doing nothing more but raising resentment and anger in eastern Ukraine. After this demilitarization .... to then enact these constitutional reforms coupled with rescinding the regulations that limit the use of Russian in the schools and workplace. But again .... unfortunately .... my prediction is that the Ukraine government is nowhere near on implementing any of these ideas.

But while tensions in the east are still high, it is within the rest of Ukraine that a different conflict is brewing. The economy has for all intents and purposes collapsed. There is high unemployment, poverty levels are reaching truly frightening levels, inflation is everywhere, the currency is worthless, the government is broke, and corruption and cronyism is still the rule of the land rather than the law being the rule of the land. On the political front, the politicians are now bickering openly, threatening each other with violence, and any hope of compromise and unity is evaporating with each passing day. Ukrainian nationalist movements and militias like Right Sector are also exacerbating the situation .... using violence, threats, and intimidation to silent their opponents .... that is resulting in even more blow-back and anger.

What's my prediction for the future. The rebels .... while unified against the Ukraine government .... are still divided amongst themselves .... Disorder Spreads Among Russian-Backed Ukrainian Rebels (International Crisis Group). This is going to be a long term problem, and neither Ukraine, Russia, or the West are in a position to solve it. As I have mentioned more than once in the past year in this blog .... I know these people .... I know their culture and mindset .... they are incredibly hard-headed and difficult to deal with. For peace to ever come to this region the people and their leaders will need to be given their space to work out their differences amongst themselves .... and with time they will. Using the Ukraine army (backed with western military aid) is not going to solve this mess .... it will only escalate with Russia becoming even more involved.

As for the rest of Ukraine .... I am not at all optimistic. This is a country on the verge of becoming a failed state .... it needs political, legal, and economic reform ... and once that is done, international aid and assistance in the billions (strictly supervised and watched) .... but not in loans and IOUs. Unfortunately .... the West has no money to give, and Ukraine's political crisis coupled with the poison of extreme Ukrainian nationalism is making the situation unworkable. I said 6 months ago that if conditions do not appreciably improve .... there is a real possibility of another revolution in Ukraine by the winter of 2015 - 2016. I am still holding to that prediction.

Ukraine Crisis News Updates -- July 16, 2015

Ukraine Takes Steps Toward Greater Autonomy for Russian-Backed East -- WSJ
Ukraine moves toward constitutional reform -- AP
Ukraine takes first step toward giving rebels self-rule -- AFP
Ukraine takes step towards giving regions self-rule -- Financial Times
Ukraine Lawmakers Back Constitutional Law Linked to Truce -- Bloomberg
Poroshenko denies reforms will give separatist Ukraine regions special status -- Newsweek
Ukraine: will constitutional reform stem the fighting in the east? -- Euronews
Fighting surges in east Ukraine -- Sydney Morning Herald
Ukraine clashes raise questions over Right Sector militia -- BBC
No Political Party in Ukraine to Have Military Units - Poroshenko -- Sputnik
Textbooks and Assault Rifles: The Student Soldiers in Rebel-Held Ukraine -- Vice News
Ukraine passes laws to unlock $3.2 billion in foreign aid -- Reuters
Ukraine Makes Progress in Talks With Creditors -- WSJ
A year on, Ukrainian villagers recall horrors of MH17; then-rebel chief indifferent to probe -- FOX News/AP
Sources say MH17 report blames Russian missile for shooting down plane -- CNN
US officials say Ukraine rebels behind MH17 downing, Dutch team cannot confirm -- RT
MH17 Ukraine disaster: Putin says UN tribunal premature -- BBC
MH17 Crash Victims Sue Ukraine's Donetsk People’s Republic Leader Igor Girkin For $900M -- IBTimes
Ukraine’s forgotten ceasefire -- Al Jazeera