World War III Is Becoming More Possible With Each Passing Day

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Max Fisher, VOX: How World War III became possible

A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think

It was in August 2014 that the real danger began, and that we heard the first warnings of war. That month, unmarked Russian troops covertly invaded eastern Ukraine, where the separatist conflict had grown out of its control. The Russian air force began harassing the neighboring Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are members of NATO. The US pledged that it would uphold its commitment to defend those countries as if they were American soil, and later staged military exercises a few hundred yards from Russia's border.

Both sides came to believe that the other had more drastic intentions. Moscow is convinced the West is bent on isolating, subjugating, or outright destroying Russia. One in three Russians now believe the US may invade. Western nations worry, with reason, that Russia could use the threat of war, or provoke an actual conflict, to fracture NATO and its commitment to defend Eastern Europe. This would break the status quo order that has peacefully unified Europe under Western leadership, and kept out Russian influence, for 25 years.

WNU Editor: I know some of the people in this report .... Fyodor Lukyanov is one of them. As to what is my take .... this is a sobering analysis of which I agree with some of it (the dangers that the current situation in Ukraine poses to world peace) .... and some that I do not (Russia is not going to invade the Baltics). It is also gratifying to see many of the points that are outlined by Max Fisher in this post are actually the same points that have been brought up by this blog over the past year .... it is good to know that you are "ahead of the curve". As to the possibility of a West - Russian war .... a year ago I would have said zero. But with the return of war to Ukraine early this year and the subsequent rush to sign Minsk II when French and German leaders realized that this was spinning out of control .... I started to warn that this was becoming dangerous .... doubly so because the old back-channels and lines of communication that were established during the Cold War to prevent a Hot War were no longer there. Today .... with intimidation and threats being the rule  between Russia and the West rather than the exception .... there is no question in my mind that we are now going down a dangerous path .... and what scares me is that I suspect that there are many in Western Europe and in Washington who are still oblivious on what is happening,  and how the current situation could easily explode with global implications overnight. In short .... Putin knows what is at stake .... and he knows that President Obama's focus is elsewhere (Greece, Islamic State, Afghanistan, his domestic agenda, etc.) .... will he now REALLY test U.S. and European resolve .... and is the West ready to answer in kind .... on this point I do not know the answer.

Update: This is an example on how dangerous the skies in eastern Europe are becoming .... Russian Pilot Shot Flares at Swedish Jet (Real Clear Defense).