Norman Podhoretz, Colombia daily Tribune/Wall Street Journal: Israel’s Choice: Conventional War Now, or Nuclear War Later
Almost everyone who opposes the deal President Barack Obama has struck with Iran hotly contests his relentless insistence that the only alternative to it is war. No, they claim, there is another alternative, and that is “a better deal.”
To which Obama responds that Iran would never agree to the terms his critics imagine could be imposed. These terms would include the toughening rather than the lifting of sanctions; “anytime, anywhere” nuclear-plant inspections instead of the easily evaded ones to which he has agreed; the elimination rather than the freezing of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure; and the corresponding elimination of the “sunset” clause that leaves Iran free after 10 years to build as many nuclear weapons as it wishes.
WNU Editor: I sincerely hope that Norman Podhoretz is wrong ... unfortunately .... when one looks at the Middle East from a historical perspective .... wars and conflicts have always been a constant throughout this region's history, as well as a history where new and more destructive weapons that have been developed always end up being being used in its wars. Nuclear weapons ..... specifically the use of them .... will be the next logical step for many of these protagonists .... after-all .... they are just following tradition.
7 comments:
Reports that Iran is ordering massive numbers of modern fighter/bomber and in air refueling aircraft, accelerated Iranian ballistic missile and warhead development, and a nuke agreement that provides little confidence leaves Israel little choice but to prepare for a preemptive attack. The situation reminds me of France during the 1930s. There came a point where they had the manpower and resources to stop the Nazis but they watched that demographic and superior military advantage whither away and, when they finally saw the writing on the wall, it was to late to take action. Military historians know this lesson well. I believe that Israel is at that point now.
Israel now needs to make a calculated decision. Can it wait for Obama to leave and an experienced and rational President and foreign policy team take his place and reverse Israel's precarious position or will it need to act soon in order to ensure its survival. Obama has created an awful situation in the Middle East with Israel the most endangered by the actions of the U.S. The U.S. has zero tolerance for actions that harm its economic or military interests. It does not allow Israel, now a front line state in the latest Middle East conflagration caused by the U.S., the same fundamental right of states to defend themselves against nations or groups that kill its citizens or threaten its existence.
The U.S. seems to view the military situation like a game of Risk. It fails to note that real people are dying while it plays at limited war. Perhaps the very serious people in D.C. need to brush off the WW2 Strategic Bombing Study in order to understand their present plight.
Anon,
"Reports that Iran is ordering massive numbers of modern fighter/bomber and in air refueling aircraft, accelerated Iranian ballistic missile and warhead development, and a nuke agreement that provides little confidence leaves Israel little choice but to prepare for a preemptive attack."
Yes, but Iran doesn't have to strike Israel just yet, just keep the pressure up. An air force brought up to near modern standards along with a vastly improved air defense system could give them what they need to close Hormuz, revitalize their Yemen effort, and rescue Hezbollah. If they were able to cow the Saudi's the Gulf States and Kuwait it would leave Israel and Egypt almost totally isolated and substantially weaker. As you've said Israel (and others) have some big decisions to make and quick.
Reports... reports you say... has anyone SEEN these aircraft? Has anyone seen the Iranians training with them. Has anyone seen them actually perform some sort of standoff attack using coordinated command and control?
As they have proven so many times in the past, you put half-trained pilots in pretty aircraft in front of IAF pilots, it's literally like leading lambs to the slaughter.
Remember, you can have the prettiest weapon on the block, but unless you know how to use it better than the dude who's coming for you, you're dead.
It sounds like these people are BEGGING to fight a war, thinking that it will solve anything.
Have any of these asshats (including some of the geniuses on here) actually remember what has happened during the last fourteen years?
Jesus Christ...
@ Trevor Pyle, you will get your war, and the next 14 years might well be worse than the past 14. did you think the Ayatollahs would buy Happy Meals with their unfrozen billions?
No treaty? then sanctions lifted by China and Russia. How many billions will that bring?
Neo-cons like Podhoretz always exaggerate the threat. Iran does not have the bomb, US intelligence has repeatedly concluded that Iran hasn't had a bomb program for more than 10 years. The reality is that the nuclear power in the Middle East is Israel, but since Israel won't admit it, we don't know what their arsenal consists of or what their operational nuclear doctrine is or under what circumstances they would consider launching a nuclear strike, or, for that matter, whose finger is on the nuclear button. Israel also happens to have the most powerful conventional armed forces in the region. The idea that Iran is a military threat to Israel is laughable. The Iranian military is delapidated and will take more than decade to rebuild into a force capable of operations outside their own territory, assuming that they even intend to focus on such a capability. Iran has a well developed irregular warfare capability, which is dangerous but hardly represents an existential threat.
Hawks with no blood on their talons.
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