Nikolas K. Gvosdev, National Interest: Russia and Ukraine: Back on the Brink of War?
Just as there are tremors registered before a major earthquake occurs, there are clear warning signs that things could heat up very quickly, very soon.
While the ceasefire in Ukraine has been gradually eroding over the last several weeks, are we on the verge of seeing full-scale hostilities resume? While the position of the major European powers remains preservation of the Minsk peace process at all costs, even to the extent of studiously ignoring the recent flare-ups that make a mockery of the very idea of a cease-fire, both sides in the conflict—Russia and the separatists on one side, and the Ukrainian government on the other—have considerable incentives to stoke up the conflict at this particular point in time in the hopes of delivering a knockout blow that could change the current facts on the ground.
Update #1: Attacks, and Accusations, Escalate in Eastern Ukraine -- NYT
WNU Editor: The violence has definitely picked up in the past week .... Ukraine Violence Spikes Despite Cease-Fire; U.S., Russia Trade Barbs (NBC). What's my take .... Ukraine is on the verge of a major escalation in the conflict .... but we are not there yet.
Update #2: Here is a good analysis .... Here's what might be behind the latest surge in violence in Ukraine (Edward W. Walker. Eurasian Geopolitics).
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