Monday, September 14, 2015

A Bosnian Solution To Syria?


Marc Champion, Bloomberg: To Imagine Syria at Peace, Think of Bosnia

It took a temporary partition to end the war that tore apart Bosnia in the 1990s. Why not do the same for Syria?

In one sense, a partitioned Syria is already visible, its contours drawn by the front lines of the civil war. President Bashar al-Assad has retreated from territory that was too difficult for his overextended forces to hold, giving up the attempt to reimpose nationwide control. (That doesn't mean he's on the run. Iran and Russia have made it clear they won't let that happen.)

Kurds hold the area near the Turkish border, having driven out Islamic State.

WNU Editor: Aside from the Islamic State, the other problem is that Al Nusra is one of the more dominant rebel groups, but their ties to Al Qaeda make them unpalatable for the West to accept. As to what is my take .... Syria is already a defacto partition state, and coupled with the fact that so many groups are not interested in peace but want to continue the war because they believe that momentum is on their side .... and add the influence of outside countries .... this civil war can easily grind on for the next 5 years (and more). I should also add that Iraq, Yemen, and Libya are now also defacto divided states , and they are going down the same road that Syria choose to take when their civil war first started.

Update: DIA chief: Iraq and Syria May Not Survive as States -- AP/Real Clear Defense

No comments: