The dynamic of war matters now in Syria. Not politics or diplomacy
Jeremy Bowen, BBC: Syria conflict: No sign of Assad regime crumbling
Predictions of the imminent, or even medium-term fall of Damascus are wrong.
It does not feel like the capital of a regime that is about to crumble.
The government-held areas that I have visited seem calm and functional. The ministry of defence, behind heavy layers of security, moves at a stately pace.
The regime has deployed some of its strongest units in Damascus because keeping the capital is so important to it.
The troops I met seemed to have good morale, in cohesive units. Their kit and weapons were well looked after; so were their positions.
One of the most strategic front lines in Damascus is in the inner city suburb of Jobar.
WNU Editor: The Assad regime may not be crumbling, but they are also not winning the war. If anything .... it appears that the conflict in Syria has now entered a "stalemate" with both sides not in a position to mortally wound the other.
6 comments:
The above report mention very litle about the current situation of the war. It mention a rebel offensive in East Ghouta, but it's way underreported. Rebels reportedly break through, advanced toward north, crossed Route M5, the whole route been closed a few days ago, so the connection between Damascus and anything toward north is not going on this way (however through the Qalamun they are still connevted). The situation is not all clear, rebels advanced in the direction of Harasta, Adra, and directly to a Military Base/Depot on the North. The rebel advance seems to hit SAA on a soft spot, but I not yet heard about the number of casualties so I don't know that the rebels actually hit SAA hard or not. This is not the first time rebels from East Ghouta did such an offence, and as usual it's expected that SAA reposition some forces and push the rebels back to Duma and clear the M5 route again. When will this happen, I don't know, they probably need a month or so, if not more.
Operations in Jobar changed shape since the last big SAA push around mid 2014. It's now in a very slow phase of siege, just like Daraya or Yarmuk. SAA has no intention to rush those places, it's not worth the cost now, and probably we will not see Jobar being liberated for a long time. In Rif Dimashq SAA focusing more on Zabadani, where they had lots of progress. The town itself will fall before winter, but even if it is a well made SAA operation with acceptable casualties, but Zabadani is in ruins, just like Jobar. In the area IS seems way too calm now since their last pushes towad Damascus, and I guess the next phase of their plan will soon come live. I expect them to push toward East Ghouta, or Yabrud.
Thank you mlacix for your update.
what's up with the guy on the far left?
Good eyes Caecus. Commentator James usually spots these things.
Either mounting or dismounting that armored vehicle.
That is a good catch Caecus. Also that guy seems to be one of the few in the pic with military style foot wear.
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