BBC: Russia's Syria military build-up is self-protection - Kerry
Russia's military build-up in Syria appears to be limited to protecting its own forces in the country, US Secretary of State John Kerry has said.
However, Mr Kerry warned that Russia's long-term intentions remained unclear.
His comments on Tuesday followed the publication of satellite images that suggested Russia was developing two additional military bases in Syria.
The images show new buildings, surface clearing and tents at a weapons depot and military complex north of Latakia.
WNU Editor: Turkey is not happy with these Kerry remarks .... Kerry's remarks on Syria trouble Turkey (Al-Monitor). The Russians are gloating .... US becomes more perceptive to Russia's position on Syrian crisis — Lavrov (TASS)
More News On U.S. Secretary Of State Kerry Comments On The Russian Build-up In Syria
Russian aircraft in Syria consistent with 'force protection': Kerry -- Reuters
Kerry: Russian Jets In Syria Appear To Be There To Protect Own Base -- AFP
Kerry: Russian Planes in Syria for 'Force Protection' -- VOA
Kerry: Russia’s military build-up in Syria is self-protection -- Middle East Monitor
Kerry says Russian support for Assad risks confrontation -- Reuters
Russia's support for Syria could lead to confrontation: Kerry -- Press TV
Kerry says US hopes to see Russia and Iran be helpful in Syria, support political transition -- FOX News/AP
Russia, Iran Could Persuade Syria's Assad to Negotiate: Kerry -- NBC
John Kerry admits US was disturbed by build up of Russian military in Syria -- The Independent
John Kerry is helping Putin validate Assad's dubious narrative on the refugee crisis -- Natasha Bertrand and Pamela Engel, Business Insider
9 comments:
Well it's a safe bet they're not there for the 363rd Borscht Festival and Cossack appreciation day.
WNU: You bet Turkey's unhappy, they can see the writing on the wall.
WNU, Just to add on the Turkey deal, I bet there will be some high level talks between Erdogan and Putin pretty quick. It should be dawning on the Turks how isolated they are.
James. Turkey has been a sore spot for Russia in the Caucasus. Turkey has a long history of turning a blind eye to radical jihadists using Turkey as a place to plan and coordinate attacks in Russia. And while Turkey has never been used as a place to launch attacks against Russian targets by these Jihadists (at least that is what I know), they live there and they are left alone by Turkish authorities. This German report from last year sums up this Turkey - Chechnya link perfectly and what Russia is now suspected of doing .... http://www.dw.com/en/was-russia-behind-chechen-murders-in-turkey/a-17477421
The more russians get involved in Syria the better for the whole world.
Wnu,
I think I'm beginning to see what Putin's trying to do. It's speculation, but here goes. If he can establish a viable permanent military presence in Syria with naval bases he can:
1) Isolate Turkey to pull them away from Nato policy.
a. Pressure Turkey on the transit and harboring of Sunni (Chechan) militants.
b. Pressure Turkey to allow free transit of naval units through the Dardenelles
c. Pressure Turkey on the flow of refugees northward to Europe
2) Have a military presence on the western sea approaches to the Suez, allowing an
unspoken influence on sea traffic.
3) Have a military presence right in the middle of all the new offshore petro
fields in the eastern Med.
4) Control of refugee stream (see 1c) gives him leverage over Europe on the
subject of the Ukraine and attendant European sanctions.
Possible downsides:
1) Maintaining a credible presence while not letting ISIS drag Russia into an
Afghan like conflict.
2) Maintaining the upper hand with Iran (Hezbollah) who in the end want NO
foreign forces presence and will probably carry out a low level campaign against
Russia like they did against the US.
There is more that I'd rather not speak of now, but all in all a pretty astute, but iffy enterprise.
More amateur hour from the U.S. Administration.
I actually think that a case can be made for viewing the Russian build up in Syria with equanimity.
1. What are Russia's goals? First, I honestly think that Russia is not concerned with whether Assad remains in power. But Russia would not welcome a victory by ISIS and al-Qaida, the two rebel groups most likely to replace Assad. Even the emergence of the de facto ISIS state is not in Russia's interest. Russia's intervention is to help the opponents of ISIS and al-Qaida to keep the war going. Russia's ally Iran also opposes a victory by Sunnis of any sort, especially ISIS or al-Qaida, in Syria. Moreover, Russia is the enemy of the Saudis, who oppose Assad and support ISIS financially.
2. Since Soviet times, Russia has wanted naval and air bases in the Mediterranean. I believe Nasser, Sadat, and Hafez Assad all accepted Soviet money, weapons, and advisors, but never allowed a Soviet base in their countries. Putin still wants bases regardless of who rules Syria, or whether Syria remains one country. Whether Syria survives or is partitioned, Russia will keep these bases.
3. What role will Russia play? Clearly Russia will provide air power, and logistical and other support, and money to Assad and his allies. I would be surprised if Russia adds ground forces for front line fighting. Russia has plenty of proxies and allies who will provide young men to do the front line fighting. Pity the Russian pilot who is captured by ISIS; I'm sure ISIS will devise some especially horrific way to murder such a captive.
4. Why should the West not be alarmed by these developments? First, all sides in this war have plenty of men, money, and (at bottom) religious motivation to keep this war going for the foreseeable future. I could easily imagine this war still going in 2025. The Russians are going to spend a lot of money and likely take casualties in this war, but the Russian intervention will not likely end the war with a victory for Assad and his allies. One would think that Putin would remember Afghanistan. It seems to me that Putin is entering a quagmire.
5. Second, other than a few Christian and Kurdish fighters on the margins, all of the principal factions in the war are bad actors. I am reminded of Kissinger's comment about the Iran-Iraq war: it is a pity they can't both lose. Russian intervention will help Assad and his allies survive, but won't result in a victory. Russian intervention will keep the war going.
6. For the West, the Russian bases will be destabilizing and will give Russia greater influence in the Levant and the Eastern Mediterranean. These are of course undesirable developments. But at this point I fear that the West lacks the power to stop Russia. Interestingly, the Israelis seem resigned to it as well.
7. I agree with James that Turkey must now reconsider its growing isolation.
I asked someone I respect in Moscow on what was his opinion on what was happening. His answer .... it gives Russia leverage over everyone in the region. But you are right about the downside .... I do not see the Syrian rebels holding back, and their supporters in the Gulf will escalate their military support for these groups.
Thank you for your analysis Publius. There is nothing that you said that I am in disagreement with.
Publius,
" But at this point I fear that the West lacks the power to stop Russia. Interestingly, the Israelis seem resigned to it as well."
The Israeli reactions to all of this has been fascinating. Netanyahu's Russia visit with a hi powered intel/military delegation seems to indicate a little resignation on their part, but with those guys you never know. Any way how Russia can keep a presence in Syria to accomplish the things that have been mentioned without being pulled into a ground slug fest is going to be something to watch.
As you have alluded to and I have stated Assad is nothing more now than Putin's creature useful giving cover for being in Syria.
Back to your statement on the West having no power, yes, yes, and yes. Europe has been exposed and pinned down with the refugee problem and the US won't/can't do what is necessary, so it's Putin's ballgame get the popcorn.
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