Syria army begins offensive near Aleppo with Russian support http://t.co/xSZvjsqDY7 pic.twitter.com/P8f0Xp6k2c
— Agence France-Presse (@AFP) October 16, 2015
Richard Fernandez, PJ Media: The Syrian Offensive
A big Syrian/Iranian/Russian push has started in northern Syria whose general features are depicted on this map. The big mystery is its goal. There are no deep penetrations, no flashy armored dashes. Outwardly the objectives appear to be limited: prolonging the survival of the Assad regime. Chas Danner of New Yorker Magazine cites president Obama’s confident prediction that it’s Putin’s Last Gap. “If you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in in order to prop up your only ally is leadership, then we’ve got a different definition of leadership.”
The Russian offensive may look futile from Obama’s point of view since it does nothing to create what the administration believes should be everyone’s desired end state: “a peaceful, stable, multisectarian democracy”. Fareed Zakaria notes the president thinks the Iranians and Russians lack the power have to create a stable successor state and therefore Putin’s efforts are doomed. “If Obama’s goal is a peaceful, stable, multisectarian democracy, then it requires a vast U.S. commitment on the scale of the Iraq war. ” He can’t do it. How can Putin?
WNU Editor: I have a different take from Richard Fernandez. I am starting to believe that Putin is looking for a victory .... not a status quo situation in which chaos and instability is the rule for Syria and the Middle East. I say this because reports from Russians are now coming out that they are going to increase their air campaign .... and they are going to do so substantially. Iran and its proxies are also now involved .... and they are looking for a victory .... not a status quo situation. And then there is Iraq .... the Iraqis are clearly hoping for a defeat of the insurgency in Syria, because it would then mean a refocus and assistance from Iran (and Russia) on their own campaign against the Islamic State. But if this is Putin's endgame .... a victory not a stalemate .... I am still of the opinion that it will not succeed. To defeat this rebel movement will involve the deployment of resources and manpower that the Iranians, Syrians, and Russians do not have in the field right now .... and at this moment in time are not prepared to deploy.
Hat Tip to James for this link.
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