© Sputnik/ Dmitri Vinogradov
Alexander Mercouris, Sputnik: The West Fears Russia’s Success in Syria - Not Its Failure
The Western response to the Russian air campaign in Syria provokes a sense of deja vu.
In every respect it is identical to the Western response to the Russian campaign in Chechnya in 1999. In the weeks following the start of that campaign Western pundits made a host of claims and predictions. They claimed the Russian airforce was bombing civilians, and accused Russia’s leadership of war crimes. They said Russian military action would radicalise the population, turning it against Russia. They predicted more terrorist attacks against Russia, and predicted Russia’s defeat.
All these claims and predictions proved wrong.
The local population was not radicalised. Instead it supported the restoration of orderly government and the defeat of jihadism and terrorism. The people who now fight jihadism and terrorism in the Caucasus are principally local people.
WNU Editor: Syria is not Checnya if that is the model that the Russian military wants to employ in its Syrian campaign .... not even close. Syria is in the middle of a sectarian civil war .... and every major power in the world is involved (or will be involved) to a certain degree in this conflict. A few thousand Russian soldiers and a few dozen planes are not going to make a difference.
7 comments:
Don't drink and post, Kids!
WNU Editor,
Once you remove the imported jihadists, the Syrian Fee Army, all 5 of them, and the YPG, which are just protecting Kurdish areas from the jihadist,
The OpFor in Syria numbers between 45,000 and 65,000 fighters, less than 0.004% of the Syrian Population.
The key is to cut them off from their external sources of support while degrading/destroying their forces in Syria (then Iraq). After breaking up their force structure, taking and securing territory is a must. The bombing is important but it won't work without establishing a cordon sanitaire around the areas ISIL and the "moderates" control. Once that's done, pummelling them to death inside it, through conventional military means, targeted assassinations, and especially hard core security/repression/relocation and re-education operations. I see martial law in these liberated zones running parallel to rebuilding of infrastructure and reestablishment of government institutions/services.
Russia's not too inconspicuous flirtations with so called Turkish airspace may be a warning to the effect of "Hey, Sultan, we're here and we're watching. It would be in your best interests to make sure to mind the border traffic." The ships off the coast are sure to be monitoring communications in the area as well. I expect to see videos of various convoys moving to and fro in the Turkish/Syrian border areas being turned into grease spots right shortly.
It's the surrounding/combatting/securing part that has me concerned. This takes manpower, which has me wondering just how many soldiers/personnel Syria's allies are willing to commit and for how long. Even if the opfor is not huge, it doesn't take many of them to cause trouble out of all proportion to their numbers. This is what they excel at: small unit terrorist cells using asymetrical methods to attrite conventional forces and destroy popular confidence in the state. So, people, lots of them, are going to be needed at different levels to beat the enemy down. Especially the local terrorists.
Then there is keeping the other foreign sponsors on the back foot. That's a whole other story.
A long post for sure. More thinking out loud than anything.
I'm positive the Russians, Syrians, and Iranians have discussed this.
Here's a bit of aforementioned manpower
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/nato-russia-warplane-turkey.html?_r=0
Great. They're leaving, but it should be in body bags not alive to Jordan so they can turn around and re-infiltrate.
https://www.rt.com/news/317720-terrorists-leaving-syria-airstrikes/
RRH,
"
It's the surrounding/combatting/securing part that has me concerned. This takes manpower, which has me wondering just how many soldiers/personnel Syria's allies are willing to commit and for how long. "
The SAA, Hezboallah, LPF are reported as being 250,000 strong.
2/3's are reported to be engaged in securing/seiging the Islamic Jihadist enclaves scattered about the Assad Regime dominated areas.
As the Jihadists are reported to be buried in bunkers, tunnels and fortified buildings surrounded by human shields, ( willing or not, the ceasefire in Hatain saw 95% of the population elect to be evacuated to Government enclaves, only 5% elected to move to Al Quida held turf).
Each pocket clearing releases huge numbers of forces for further offences.
Something we agree on sir.
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