Saturday, November 28, 2015

Are Low Oil Prices Aggravating Internal Conflicts And Civil Wars?

Soldiers guard an oil installation in South Sudan. Africa Arguments

Ryan Opsal, Will Low Oil Prices Increase Internal Instability In Conflict Countries?

With over 1.6 million internally displaced in South Sudan, and another 600,000 refugees in neighboring countries, are oil price declines exacerbating humanitarian crises in oil-producing African countries, and can we expect further deterioration as a result of the recent price depression?

This is a worthwhile issue to explore given South Sudan’s overwhelming reliance on oil revenues to fill government coffers; a similar situation that can be duplicated throughout Africa with not only oil, but other commodities exports as well. But, do price changes really exacerbate these conflicts? The answer is: it depends.

WNU Editor: The position that the author in the above post is advocating is that declining oil prices will not impact the civil wars that are happening today in places like South Sudan. That may be the case, but I have to wonder if oil prices were indeed higher, would it make these civil wars worse, or would it force the leaders of these conflicts to come to an agreement.

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