Image: Flickr/Prime Minister of Israel
Gabriel Scheinmann, National Interest: Israel Has No Iran Strategy
How Netanyahu can face the Middle East after the nuclear deal… before it's too late.
After a week of meetings in Israel, one thing is clear to me: Israel has no Iran strategy. Seemingly spent from the losing public campaign against the Iranian nuclear deal, not even the passage of “Adoption Day” on October 18 roused Israeli officials from their post-deal slumber. Israelis reluctantly see themselves as bystanders to their fate—a position reinforced by Russia’s intervention in Syria—relegated to pleading with an Obama administration that is still crowing from its resolute achievement. Focused on abating the recent wave of Palestinian terrorism, Israel seems listless in the post–Iran deal era.
WNU Editor: Israel has always been dependent on U.S. support and assistance .... and the U.S. has always given Israel this support and assistance. President Obama will be remembered for many things .... changing the dynamics of the U.S. - Israel alliance to get an Iranian nuclear deal will be one of those events that will be remembered for a very long time .... especially in Israel.
13 comments:
WNU Editor,
Israel has never had a "plan" for dealing with Iran.
The closest they ever came was:
1). bomb Busheir,
2). ?????????????
3). Profits!
There never was a plan for dealing with the aftermath, other than hoping Iran would not react, and that if Iran did react, the U.S. military could some how contain the fall out.
Israel likely has a plan for each conflict scenario it may face, just like Russia, China and the U.S. That the Prime Minister and Defense establishment has not shared their Iran military plans with the author of the article is not surprising. I have not received an e-mail with the plans either. I'll check my spam filter.
Then again, they just may be too busy with their current conflicts with Syria, all the rebel factions, Hamas, Hezbollah, the alphabet soup of anti-Israel organizations, weapons procurement from the U.S., random stabbings and rammings, reorganization of the IDF, organic weapons development, oil development and infrastructure protection, guarding long borders with hostile neighbors, running land, sea and air ops with live weapons and delivering them on target, and dealing with a President and Administration that is hostile to the notion that Israel is a sovereign country under imminent threat. Or is it that their too busy watching "Blood and Oil" on satellite TV?
Israel exists because it plans and executes what is necessary to survive. When it screws up it pivots and corrects the problem. Israel has plans and its survival is proof that its plans work. Unlike other countries, it fights its own fights. It wins those fights. It contrast, the U.S. is currently having difficulty identifying its friends, countering its enemies, or winning major conflicts and holding the ground it has gained. If Israel conducted its military and security affairs with the same success level as the U.S. the population would either be speaking another language or be gone. In contrast, the U.S. has a great job monitoring its population, creating an oligarchy, reducing democracy, violating its Constitution. and developing infrastructure to rival many third world countries. In contrast, Israel has created a vibrant first world country with a multi-party democracy in the middle one of the nastiest neighborhoods one can imagine. If they have done this without any plan then they really are the chosen people.
Now, to the false assertion that Israel has always been dependent on the U.S. for its weapons and support. Not even close to true. There are too many years and too much history to go into here. For our Russian editor, I suggest he consult The Forgotten Friendship: Israel and the Soviet Bloc, 1947-53 Hardcover – January 1, 1970. The facts might change the opinions expressed in this blog. Of course, one must not forget the French. The U.S. is just the latest friend of Israel, for ideological, geopolitical or strategic purposes. Latest news is that Israel is walking a tightrope as it is forced to develop a strategic relationship with Russia, the new power on the block, and a holding strategy until its enemy, Mr. Obama, leaves the stage.
Given that Israel has survived each and every major war and war of attrition during its brief life, one must assume that these folks know how run a country and military. Now, in the U.S., if I could only get quality affordable healthcare, a functional high speed internet, an efficient public transportation network, 21st century infrastructure, and the ability to vote for more than the two party choice that I am given, I would think that I lived in a first world democracy. Then again I could move to plan-less Israel and get them tomorrow.
Yep, you could, all subsidized one way or another by the near bankrupt two party U.S. you mentioned.
Yep, you could, all subsidized one way or another by the near bankrupt two party U.S. you mentioned.
November 5, 2015 at 10:06 PM
In response, Israel receives about $3 billion of U.S. aid per year. The same as Egypt receives. In contrast, for the down payment, the U.S. is permitted to store its pre-positioned heavy equipment and other war essentials in bunkers around Israel. It also gets to use secure Israeli air bases for staging purposes should our "friends" in the Arab world decide that they will no longer put up with America.
Look at it as rent. A non-sinkable aircraft carrier and staging base for less than half the cost of an aircraft carrier. Compared to the other services the U.S. buys for its security, it is a real bargain.
In return, Israel tests and uses U.S. military equipment to find out what works and, if not, fix it for the U.S. before it has to go to war with defective gear. Finally, up to 80% of all U.S. aid to Israel must be spent in the U.S. thus bringing jobs to the U.S.
So, in short, your assertion is incorrect but well spoken!
"In response, Israel receives about $3 billion of U.S. aid per year."
Appreciated, but...
http://www.wrmea.org/2013-october-november/congress-watch-a-conservative-estimate-of-total-u.s.-direct-aid-to-israel-more-than-$130-billion.html
It costs Uncle Sam a lot more than $3 billion/year to keep Israel in his corner. It's also very hard to believe the aid to Egypt isnt protection paid to keep the peace.
And he ain't alone.
http://yvesengler.com/2012/12/14/canadian-tax-dollars-aid-israels-divide-and-rule-tactics/
http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/canada-israel-relationship-close-and-getting-closer-1.1234088
"...starting with the loaf of bread and butter, to the gun and Phantom...America is the vein of life to Israel"
Anwar el Sadat
Anon .... I know Israel has the capacity, will, experience, and tools to wage war very effectively .... and they can do it independently from the U.S. But .... the advantage of having the U.S. as an ally is simple .... the equipment/expertise/tools/aid that they get makes the difference of waging a war that costs a few hundreds lives .... or a few thousand. But it also works both ways .... the deal that the U.S. is getting from Israel is a good one .... and Israel is a far more dependable ally than most Arab states.
First cite:
http://www.wrmea.org/2013-october-november/congress-watch-a-conservative-estimate-of-total-u.s.-direct-aid-to-israel-more-than-$130-billion.html
Total is for numerous years not one year. Much of the data is from unreferenced sources. Article language tone is anti-Israel. Conclusion: Cannot determine with any degree of accuracy and reliability actual numbers and totals. However, black and hidden programs likely to increase total above $3 billion stated above.
Second cite: http://yvesengler.com/2012/12/14/canadian-tax-dollars-aid-israels-divide-and-rule-tactics/
Appears to be a blog with limited citations that be can sourced to hard data. The $300 million cited is, for governments, known as budget dust. Not much money given what is trying to be done. No data related to $3 billion given to Israel to buy mostly U.S. goods.
Third cite: http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/canada-israel-relationship-close-and-getting-closer-1.1234088
Well written article. No data related to $3 billion given to Israel to buy mostly U.S. goods.
Many people argue against Israel and the direct and indirect costs based on their negative view of Israel, their biases, and the actual costs. Unfortunately, many people hide their hate of Israel behind numerical or moral arguments. Other people argue fully referenced primary sources to make a case against the expenditures based on national interests. It is hard to mix the two approaches to obtain a logical argument that is supported by verifiable facts. Thus, we are left with emotion and invective in many arguments based on jello data.
In terms of Egypt. It is an economic and social basket case. The dollars and arms sent to Egypt were to buy its loyalty away from Russia. It worked. Now, a weak U.S. government has allowed Russia to come back to Egypt with power and influence. In the meantime, the U.S. main battle tank factories in Egypt pour our more tanks to add to an incredible amount of other hardware, mostly sourced from the U.S. Crappy investment but, considering the geopolitical alternative to the West, a must investment.
As for Canadian spending priorities, I will not provide many comments since I do not live there. However, Canadian defense spending, or lack thereof, is dependent on heavy defense spending to the South. It is a very ugly and dangerous world out there with people who do not want to discuss philosophy over coffee. As such, Canadians have an enviable position. They can rely on the U.S. defense shield while deploring the U.S. for its huge military and intelligence expenditures. What happens when the ice melts is another story.
Editor: Thank you for your comments.
Israel, at one time, was trying to make its own military aircraft just as Canada tried to make the Arrow and other superb military aircraft. The U.S. shut down both the Arrow program and Israel's programs making both countries dependent on the U.S.
As you are aware, there are few industries that take more know how and skilled workers than military aviation. So, for Israel and Canada, the U.S. is the obligatory go to source for military aircraft. However, Israel takes the raw product from the U.S. and adds its own equipment and modifications. As a result, one often reads how the U.S. military pined for the upgraded aircraft (Israeli F-15s and F-16s) that had much higher capabilities and reliability than U.S. versions.
When it comes to tanks, Israel made its own tanks with engines up front to reduce casualties. Not the U.S. These tanks also double as APCs and ambulances. This also leads to lower casualties. Israel has so few people it cannot afford to waste them in combat like the U.S. This has led to military and medical innovations to reduce casualties. Not the U.S. and its aid. Israel cannot afford to lose one air frame to combat or non-combat accidents or engineering casualties. Not the U.S. Unlike the U.S. Marines who brag about the number of casualties, Israel works to limit casualties. Not the U.S. So, while U.S. equipment helps to reduce casualties, it is again Israeli doctrine and know how that really makes it happen.
As a result of U.S. priorities and muscle, Israel cannot fight without a firm supply line from the U.S. It also relies on the U.S. for precision munitions because it is held to a combat standard that no other power is required to meet. However, that said, Israel cannot fight like the U.S. or other nations because it is not allowed any do-overs.
It is Israeli know how and innovation linked to international requirements to limit casualties that shapes the Israeli military and its activities. Any other country would not tolerate the rules of engagement forced on Israel. So, Israel fights to survive never allowed to remove the enemy at its throat. Imagine Canada allowing Hitler and Nazi Germany to survive and attack Canada as many times as it pleased. That is the standard the U.S., Canada and the world force on Israel.
What the U.S. contributes is some high end hardware and expendables. Israel provides the knowledge and will to make it work.
As to a dependable ally, I think you understate Israels reliability. The Middle East is populated by failed states, monarchies who repress their people, and remnant states or wannabies that import and export terror, war, hate, and religious extremism. Israel is a stable democracy with more representative government then it knows how to handle.
In short, Israel's pharmaceutical and other industries have done more to save Canadian and American lives than anybody is willing to comment. Their IT industry makes our computer world operate efficiently. They provide the desalination know how to provide clean water to the world (e.g. California). They are, in a way, an outpost of Western values and democracy against a world view of hate and depravity. We get a darn good value for our North American investment in Israel.
"...starting with the loaf of bread and butter, to the gun and Phantom...America is the vein of life to Israel"
Anwar el Sadat
Sadat was assassinated by his own people. After his death Egypt turned to the U.S. for almost all of its military aid. They could not trust the Soviets because it was their false agit-propaganda that led Egypt into wars that it could not win or afford.
In this case one might say that the F-16, tanks,and other weapons from the U.S. are the military vein of life to Egypt. Apparently Egypt and Israel feed from the same teat. Since Egypt and Israel find the Palestinians, ISIS, Al Queda, et al. to range from terrorists to fanatics, they share common enemies and friends. Jordan just held air maneuvers in which they and Israel coordinated inter-operability. Now that these dangerous groups and nation wannabies threaten their nations, Egypt, Jordan and Israel find out that they have more in common than not. I never thought that I would see the day when this would be the case.
Points taken on the samples.
Pro or not, a lot is poured into Israel for whatever reasons and it's a heck of a lot more than $3 billion.
The benefits are debatable and, yes, some of the motives for targeting aid to them are as questionable as Israel policies and practices.
As for Egypt, the price of peace with Israel through the Camp David Accords was the aid which continued even after the collapse of the USSR. It was, and has continued to be, a great investment; for Israel. As you noted, Russia has (only) become a factor recently but never was prime.
Emotions and invective (often hysterical) play a part on both sides as do arguments not always cited from credible primary sources.
I live in Canada.
Canadians are foolish to rely on anyone else to see to Canada's defence muchless provide guarantees to states with national interests which are often questionable. $300 000 000, dust or otherwise, and a huge trade deficit, which the third piece points out, is worth investigating...whether someone "hates" Israel or not.
Anon,
"Now that these dangerous groups and nation wannabies threaten their nations, Egypt, Jordan and Israel find out that they have more in common than not. I never thought that I would see the day when this would be the case."
Taking everything as a whole it's the natural course of events. There has been a lot of de facto cooperation in the past but now I think we'll see a lot more "public" manifestations.
Nice set of posts Anon, and I agree very much with what you say here.
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