Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Could A Syrian Scale Civil War Occur Within Saudi Arabia?


Schuyler Moore, Real Clear Defense/The Bridge: Why Saudi Arabia May Be the Next Syria

The Islamic State group (ISIS) is running up against a wall. As national coalitions take a larger role in the fight against ISIS, the group will become increasingly unable to operate on as large a scale as it has in years past, and it will be pushed out of its previously held territories – its decline may take years or even decades, but it will ultimately decline. But although ISIS may deplete its resources and feel increasing pressure from the international community, its members will not simply disappear as the group loses momentum. ISIS is largely comprised of foreign fighters with limited ties to the countries they fight in, and in the event of a relocation, one country in particular looks like a promising alternative – Saudi Arabia. With internal unrest, the threat of oil-driven economic instability and a history of conflict with its neighbors, the House of Saud is ripe for insurgency and would be the ideal next location for jihadists looking for a new rallying point. As ISIS loses steam and is pushed out of its old stomping grounds, Saudi Arabia is in danger of becoming the next ground zero for terrorism in the region.

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WNU Editor: I do not see such a conflict occurring in Saudi Arabia right now. What is happening in Syria has tempered any calls for change in Saudi Arabia .... and no one should be surprised .... no one wants to provoke events that may quickly escalate into a full-scale civil war. But .... what is happening in Syria is also a wake up call to everyone in the region that nothing lasts forever .... and if reforms do not kick-in .... who knows what may happen next.

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