Vladimir Putin and members of Russian Security Council© Mikhail Klimentyev/Russian presidential press service/TASS
Dominic Tierney, Defense One/The Atlantic: What Happens If Russia Loses in Syria?
Putin's war could be unraveling.
Last September, Russia deployed dozens of jets to Syria to rescue the ailing regime of Bashar al-Assad. Vladimir Putin aimed to protect one of Moscow’s few foreign allies and gain leverage for the coming peace negotiations over the Syrian Civil War. Russian media presented the mission as a heroic attempt to save the civilized world from Islamic terrorism. In Washington, however, Putin was widely seen as wading into a quagmire. According to The Economist: “If America’s Syria-watchers agree on anything it is that the Russian campaign, which has enabled Mr Assad’s forces to make only minor gains, will fail, and thereby encourage Russia to give up on its proxy. That would be a huge boost to the UN-backed peace talks John Kerry, the secretary of state, is brokering, with the aim of replacing Mr Assad with a transitional government early next year.”
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WNU Editor: This is a topic that is never discussed in Moscow. And while there is a realization in Russia that there is a very real possibility that Syrian President Assad may be removed from power and that Syria may fracture (like Lebanon) into different parts .... a complete and utter defeat of the Syrian regime is not being predicted. But in the event that everything does go to hell, and the Russians are forced to flee from Syria .... a part of me has doubts that there will be any long term repercussions (politically speaking for Russian President Putin) from such a defeat. Everyone that I know in Russia has accepted the idea that Syria is a "basket-case", and it will be a country that will not see peace for years (if ever). So why the involvement? When I ask that question to my Russian friends and family, they all tell me the same thing .... to assist an ally but this is still a fight that rests in the hands of the Syrian people itself .... not Russia's. That is why I believe that as long as Russian casualties are light .... and the costs low .... coupled with Russian President Putin being honest about Russia's mission in Syria .... the Russian public is going to support the mission .... even if things go wrong. But if Putin should decide to up Russia's involvement without adequately explaining why to the Russian public .... and the casualties start to pour in .... the public sentiment will change, and change quickly.
12 comments:
ISIS is losing territory in the double digits.
It remains to be seen what Turkey and Iran continue to do.
Russian intervention forced Obama step up his bombing campaign.
Could Syria be the training ground for Russian tactics the same way that Spain was for Germany?
The Russian Army is not "fighting" in Syria.
They have a small number of Spetnaz and other folks doing "advisor" tasks, but most of the Russian Army and Naval Marines are providing security for the Russian deployments.
The RUAF is flying strike missions against an enemy that has very little in modern air defences and no airforce.
In contrast, Italian and German "volenteers" in Spain were facing a "peer" enemy on the ground and in the air, right up until the last months of the war.
While the Russian Military will learn lessons from this deployment, if they were using this as a "training ground", they would be considerably more involved in the ground war, and their aircraft would be running as many intercept missions of US aircraft, as strike missions.
Thanks. I am neither a stategist nor the son of one.
Jay is correct ,and I can add that if we could learn anything at all from war wouldn't be one.
Si-vis-passen,
You need to define "we" better.
Wars are a highly effective way to transfer Public Wealth into Private and Corporate hands.
Wars are a highly effective means to install a unitary "group think" on the great mass of the Public and to create self censorship.
Wars are a highly effective means for the National Security State to impose censorship, survelliance and crush dissent.
Wars are a highly effective means for demagogue of all stripes to seize power and demonize segments of society.
These stocks are trading at 52 week lows .... so the return would have been better if sold a few years ago. But it looks they are geared to go higher now.
Is just a wishful thinking the humanity eventually will overcome war. At the end of the day only the defenseless and inosents are the one's that pay .
This giant jump in humanity needs to happen in order for humanity to conquer the cosmos.
WNU Editor,
You responded in the wrong thread.
http://www.isaacfaber.com/thoughts/2015/4/6/war-profiteering-you-should-have-bought-defense-stocks-when-the-war-started
Thank you for the link Jay. This type of stuff is valuable to me.
I am also a year behind in the trend line.
WNU,
"So why the involvement?" you know beyond the "being there" scenario I still don't know myself, and I have talked to a lot of people and thought about it for a long time, without any truly satisfying answer. I still wonder if it was an opportunistic move in the main by Putin, but evidence has not strongly supported that theory.
James,
Syria is a Russian ally, both Iraq and Lybia were Russian client states and had mutually friendly relations.
Russia " watched" as the US broke the nation state concepts in Iraq and Lybia, "overreached" on UN Resolutions, ignored concepts of National Soverignity in International Law,
Russia blocked, stalled and outmaneuvered US attempts in the UNSC to create "red lines", "no fly zones", "sanctuary zones" that would have allowed the US to use it's airpower to destroy the Assad regime and the Syrian Government,
and ran the Black Sea convoys to keep the Syrian Government armed.
In the spring of 2015, the modest gains made by the Syria and it's allies made it appear that the Syrian Government would eventually win, but the jihadi's Ildib Summer offensive, with massive external support, ( artillary, a C&C in Turkey, Special Forces advisors embedded with the jihadi's, massive amounts of TOW's and new weapons),
Made it clear to Russia that the Syrian Government could not stand against the combined weight of the jihadi's, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the GCC, Jordan, the US, etc, when those States were so willing to make their support blatant and with "boots on the ground".
A Russia red line was crossed, so Russia intervened.
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