Harold Hutchison, Daily Caller: Who Would Win In A Saudi Arabia vs. Iran Showdown?
With the growing tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was stormed and set on fire in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shia cleric, Americans ought to take notice. Five of the top seven oil producing nations are in the region of the Persian Gulf. So, even though fracking has helped increase American oil reserves to a 42-year high, things could get rocky if Iran and Saudi Arabia go to war.
How bad could it get? Well, keep in mind, in the Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980s, oil tankers became targets. The United States Navy ended up escorting neutral tankers in the Persian Gulf, and two frigates, the Stark (FFG 31) and the Samuel B. Roberts (FFG 58) were damaged. American forces also got into a few engagements with the Iranians. So, what might happen if the Saudis and Iranians end up in a fight? It has happened before.
WNU Editor: Such a conflict would make all the proxy wars (Syria/Iraq/Yemen) secondary since the major powers in the region (i.e. Iran and Saudi Arabia) are now at war. And while the Saudis may end up owning the air .... and to a certain degree the Persian Gulf .... the prospect of hundreds of Iranian missiles being launched at Saudi Arabia's oil industry and infrastructure will only mean massive damage and economic hardship for years. The Saudis may win the battle, but the impact on its economy and on its people will be severe for years .... and pressure on the House of Saud to reform will only increase.
12 comments:
WNU Editor,
Iraq, back when it was a regional military powerhouse, backed with unlimited financial, technical and weapons support, ( including US satellite Intellegence and the latest chemical weapons) from the Soviet Union , France , Qatar, the United States, the United Kingdom, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Romania,
With a border with Iran, only managed a draw.
Unless Britain, France and the United States commit ground troops, aircraft, naval vessels and commit to a new "Operation Overlord", Saudi Arabia has no chance to "win".
And with Yemen, Syria, Russia, China and Iraq as possible partners with Iran any conflict, Saudi Arabia has little chance of even getting a "draw".
Most of the Gulf State's, who are sitting on pissed off Shia minorities and in some cases majorities, are going to be fine with the "War of Words",
But will probably review how well their investment in Saddam's War paid off, and will not sign up for the "Shooting War".
If Saudi Arabia starts a shooting war, ( Iran won't), they have no chance of toppling the Iranian Government, and little chance of remaining in power.
This is incumbent on the population and their will to wage such a war. Despite the fact that the Saudi's have superb American equipment, I don't believe they have the will to fight such a war. The Persians have a long history of conflict and survival and I believe they would prevail in the long run. Let's hope it doesn't go there. Praying for peace in the Middle East!!
I concur Jay. A war will not end with the mullahs out of power in Iran. And for Saudi Arabia .... a conflict .... when it is finished .... will only put pressure on the House of Saud to reform ... or else. And I do not see the princes of Saudi Arabia being the accommodating type.
WNU Editor,
The Kingdom faces two competing internal forces for change.
On the one side you have the Shia, 7'er and 5'ver Minorities, along with a minority of "Westernized" Sunni pressuring for democracy, a liberalizing of the religious laws, ( equality of Islam) , and major economic reforms.
On the other side, there is a majority of Sunni's who believe that the Kingdom is too liberal and doesn't chop off enough heads, repress women and minorities enough and want a genocide of all non-Whabbist forms of Islam, inside the Kingdom and outside the Kingdom.
A shooting war with Iran, would probably result in the 3 eastern provinces, dominated by 7'ers and 5'vers, carved off from the Kingdom and returned to Yemen, which in turn would make Yemen back into a majority Shia State.
The two Northern Provinces, where most of the oil and gas are, and the Shia are a majority, would probably be carved off as well into a rump state, ( depending on what happens in the rest of the Gulf),
The House of Saud would fall and some ISIS like Caliphinate would take over what remains of KSA.
The rest of the Gulf States, except Oman would probably see their little Kingdoms collapse, as well.
Iran.
Iraq managed a draw.
But did the U.S. want Iraq to win?
Did Iran pay to heavy of a price with human wave attacks.
Just because your population rebounds or does not decrease does not mean that you have not suffered horrendous casualties. To say so is to say breaking a window provides jobs.
Militarily saudi absoloutley dwarf iran with over 80 billion soent on top shelf eagles and typhoons vs f4 phantoms and f5 knock offs.
When you start seeing batteries of oatriots being delivered to saudi then youll know uts getting real.
Iraq like iran is a paper tiger that has never fought a competant foe who properley utilizes what they have.
Dont forget the UAE will most likley quickly throw its not insignificant resources behind the saudis but youre right this will pass
http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/why-saudi-arabia-needs-pakistan/
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/world/middleeast/emirates-secretly-sends-colombian-mercenaries-to-fight-in-yemen.html?referer=
http://www.e-ir.info/2015/05/20/saudi-airstrikes-on-yemen-limits-to-military-adventurism/
https://m.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/1gmlxz/why_has_saudi_arabia_been_unable_to_build_an/
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/saudi-arabias-yemen-war-unravels-12853
http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/40-173.aspx#startofcomments
https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/attach/99/99935_Saudi%20Navy.doc
http://www.janes.com/article/53865/yemeni-ballistic-missile-attacks-continue-against-saudi-arabia
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2015/12/14/united-arab-emirates/77289732/
Shiny toys do not a military make.
What if Russia delivers s400 to iran
Correct it needs the political will and that will is but a match from a powder keg away.
But its apparent over the years that no one wants a major war anymore sire they have proxies and sure they cause civil unrest but when it comes to red on blue no one wants a bar of it which is a good thing.
Although obama could bluff s liytle harder before he folds his hand lol.
Correct it needs the political will and that will is but a match from a powder keg away.
But its apparent over the years that no one wants a major war anymore sire they have proxies and sure they cause civil unrest but when it comes to red on blue no one wants a bar of it which is a good thing.
Although obama could bluff s liytle harder before he folds his hand lol.
The Russian sale of S-300's was put on hold because of sanctions several years ago, but apparently the sale is now off hold and deliveries and training will start this year.
Iran already has "robust air defences", such that they would comprise the majority of missions flown in the early days of the (theoretical/planned) US airstrikes on Iran.
The addition of S-300's, or even adding S-400's, doesn't change the "game plan" much.
There are really only two key questions on the air war side of a Saudi/Iran War,
- can the KSAF "leverage" their advantages in aircraft, weapons and technology, given that they are a "prestige" Airforce that only flies daytime missions, against a much weaker IRAF, which has a much higher level of competence, experience and elan?
- does the US go "all in", including boots on the ground, and flying air combat missions, or does it limit it's support as it has in the Saudi-Yemen War?
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