Will Russia Send More Military Forces To Syria?

© Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Sam Skove, Atlantic Council: Russia Intervention in Syria Has Its Limits

While Russia's intervention in Syria appears to have helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime claw its way back from the brink of defeat, the Kremlin's gambit is in many ways a limited one.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, thanks to technical and political constraints, cannot significantly ramp up his forces in the region. This means that the relatively small force of fighter jets and bombers already deployed in Syria are the only military tools at hand to achieve Russia's objectives in Syria. Russia may be playing a big game in Syria, but ultimately it cannot play a bigger one.

Russia's small force in Syria has already achieved a great deal. While initial reports indicated that Russian intervention was failing to help Assad take back territory, they now appear to be playing a major role. Russian air attacks, which have targeted rebel positions, supply routes, and seemingly civilian populations, have in recent weeks helped Assad's forces reclaim a series of cities, including Salma, a town that had been held by opposition forces for years. At least one local commander has cited the Russian air force as the greatest threat to his troops.

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WNU Editor: I am sure that if pressed .... Moscow could order a major escalation in military forces to Syria. But the problem that Putin has is not the military options that are available to him .... nor international opinion .... it is the political problems that he will have at home if he does decide to escalate Russia's involvement in the Syrian war. For the moment Russian public opinion is supportive of the Russian military campaign in Syria .... but more deployments will expose even more Russian soldiers to dangers .... and the costs would rise appreciably. In this context .... Russian public opinion is decidedly against such an involvement .... and in a country where the economy is in the midst of a recession .... Russian President Putin cannot risk inflaming public sentiment more than what it is today.