Saudi soldiers march during Abdullah's Sword military drill in Hafar al-Batin, near the border with Kuwait, April 29, 2014. (photo by REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser)
On Feb. 4, Saudi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Ahmed Asiri announced that Saudi Arabia is now ready to send ground troops to Syria to fight the Islamic State (IS). Saudi Arabia is part of the international anti-IS coalition led by the United States since September 2014. However, when it launched the war in Yemen to fight the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels almost a year ago, its priorities shifted and its airstrikes on IS subsided. In December, it launched a new Muslim anti-IS coalition, but this, too, remains ambiguous as a strategy and may be interpreted as yet another attempt by the Saudi regime to seek Islamic backing against its rival and archenemy, namely Iran. It is important to understand why the Saudis announced they are now willing to venture into the troubled waters of Syria with ground troops, allegedly to fight IS.
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WNU Editor: I am sure that the Saudis are ready to fight in Syria. The questions that still need to be answered are .... how big of a commitment are they willing to deploy military forces into Syria, and if it is big, are they ready to accept the casualties and long term commitment that will arise. Looking at how they are operating in the war in Yemen .... my guess is that the Saudis are not going to fully commit a large number of military forces (probably only their own version of the special forces), and if the body-bags and blow-back becomes to big for them .... will quietly leave.
8 comments:
From a political point of view may be so, but the demonstrated in Yemen, the Saudis are not militarily prepared to fight in Syria. The campaign against the Houthis shows a complete lack of military doctrine. It's shameful.
The bigger question is can the Saudi's be fighting on two fronts?? The Houthis are in control of a small segment of Saudi Arabia already. If they get involved it's only a matter of time before their oil fields get hit and God forbid one of their holy sites. Also, the Shiite minority still wants to get revenge for Sheikh Nimr al-.Nimr. The prospect of 'fighting/defending' ISIS is complete insanity which will trigger a much greater war.
The Saudis have been whipped by the Houthis, both in Yemen and across the border in Saudi Arabia. They are clearly out-matched by Shia militias and SAA.
news report:
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says "this is the moment" to find a political solution the crisis in Syria.
Kerry is setting the bar high knowing it's impossible, so he can blame Russia and then go to Plan B.
The article above talking about the possible deployment under some kind of "Turkish umbrella", but the real question is not about how many or what kind of Saudi force would be deployed, but where exactly. If it's true that they want to fight IS, there are only two options, a short area on the Turkish border North from Aleppo or South from Der-er-Zor, on the Jordan border. The northern corridor is under preasure from Kurds on the East and SAA on the West, and a cut-off operation is just a matter of time, and any deploy and advance of RSA (Royal Saudi Army) will be halted by Kurds and SAA at the begining. While on the south, they could have advance more easily, could have keep bases in Jordan (the whole area here is desert) and could advance deeper. But in both way confrontation with SAA can be counted as fact, and they said RSA forces are not welcomed, and viewed as hostiles.
If the Saudis do not want to fight IS, but help rebels, they could have three choices. From Turkey they could go into Idlib area, or North Aleppo, and from Jordan to Daraa area. Having them in Idlib is the most important, and would be the most critical for the rebels, because the frontlines of theirs are barely can hold out nowadays. The North Aleppo area is just about lost, probably will kept as is by SAA, and wiht possible RSA "infiltration" among the rebels there, I would not be suprised to see a "hail mary" counterattack, not suspicious at all. In the Daraa area RSA may could say they fighting IS, because the Yarmouk Brigade (which is part of IS since last year) is operating only in SW Daraa, but RSA help to the rebels could be covered well.
In any way, RSA joining the fight on any side would be useless, only would achieve one thing, to make a bigger mess, and increase the casualties of everyone. Saudi FM could say Assad is finished, he may say this based on his plans, I don't know, but if RSA really intervent, sht will go down.
Don Bacon:
Let's hope they just about Plan B and not R.
I concur Laszlo with your analysis on the consequences of a Saudi-Turk incursion. I just posted a more comprehensive view on what is happening.
WNU:
I see. Just when the frontlines started to look predictable, and someone always flip the table.
Laslo. A Chinese news anchorman asked me 2 years ago if I was ever lost for stories on this blog. I answered .... "are you kidding" .... if I had the time and resources I would be blogging 10x what I am doing right now. The world is changing not only everyday .... but every minute, and there is NEVER a shortage of news.
Laszlo,
If the Saudis enter the arena then all bets are off. And I mean all of them.
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