Russian Defense Ministry officials sit under a display showing the Turkish-Syrian border during a briefing in Moscow, Dec. 2, 2015. (photo by REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin)
Semih Idiz, Al-Monitor: Will Turkey risk military confrontation with Russia?
Tensions between Russia and Turkey continue to escalate following the downing in November of a Russian Su-24 fighter jet that strayed into Turkish airspace.
Questions are being raised now whether the two countries are heading for a military confrontation. A leading Turkish military expert told Al-Monitor that such a Russian move could spell disaster for Turkey.
Turkey accused Russia of violating its airspace again last week and summoned Russia’s ambassador in Ankara to lodge a formal protest. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also warned Moscow that it was playing with fire and would have to face the consequences.
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WNU Editor: When it comes to Turkey nothing surprises me. But if Turkey decides to pursue an open conflict with Russia in that hope that NATO would then jump in and protect Turkey.... tensions throughout the Middle East and eastern Europe will increase exponentially. Russia is already itching to shoot down a few Turkish fighters after Turkey had shot down a Russian fighter a few months ago .... and they would not stop there. Russia would start to support and arm the Kurds, and God only knows what else. My hope is that NATO is aware of this .... and they have already told Turkey to back-off. But events on the ground in the Middle East are now incredibly fluid, and if Turkey's allies in Syria start to lose ground against the Syrian army (which is what is happening now) ... who knows what Turkey may decide to do next.
10 comments:
Bring it on.
Sadly we may be reaching a point where conflict with Russia or China may be becoming inevitable and will likely start where we all least expect... like Taiwan or Nagorno-Karabakh.
I feel like we are all just sitting around waiting for some lone-wolf Serbian extremist to fire his crappy pistol and set the world on fire.
Erdogan is (in my opinion) a megalomaniacal psychopath and is just as dangerous as Hitler was; only he has really big friends in NATO.
What's the saying; "It is folly to remain sane when you are surrounded by insanity." Why do we continuously befriend lunatics?
It's hard to imagine that Russia will not try to avenge it's downed fighter and murdered pilot.
Erdogon is a crazy, stupid person.
We might have told him to back down, but will he listen?
We might want to have Turkey's back, but with U.S. drawdowns (450K to 420K) and the Europeans lackluster commitment to a common defense, what can be done?
Russia will,
Just not now.
Sultan Ergodan desperately wants his STA, Chechen, Uxghir and Grey Wolves Terrorists to establish a blocking force, preventing the YPG from closing the border, and keeping the supply lines to ISIS open.
Ergodan has three little problems, the US has SOF embedded with the YPG, the R+6 is curb stomping his pet jihadi's, and the Turkish Military isn't going to engage in unilateral action that would risk a confrontation with Russia and Iran.
Russia is playing the long game, and is focused on making sure no US "led" coelition, under cover of "fighting ISIS", set's up the Turkish "protective" zone in Syria.
The revenge part will be delivered later, after Syria has been secured and reconstruction has started.
Some of the revenge will be economic, some will be military/political, ( aid to the Kurds and other regional "enemies" of Turkey), some may be "saddling" Turkey with a permanent population of extremist Syrians, and some of it will be accidents and assasinations over the coming decade.
Why would you want to have, as you describe, "a crazy person"'s back?
Sometimes in a fight crazy can be good.
Not when nukes may become involved.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/turkey-pkk-clashes-who-are-terrorizing-kurds.html
Do you really want to follow a "crazy" person into War with Syria, Iran and Russia, that will also probably involve Iraq, over protecting the remmenants of al Quida and ISIS?
I concur jay. Russia will have its revenge for the downed pilot .... just not now. Their focus is on the war, where it should be.
A problem with Erdogan is that the worse his situation becomes, the more he cracks down on the Turkish citizenry and makes stupid mistakes. This makes it difficult for his "western" allies to run cover for him as some kind of democratic champion fighting the evil dictator Assad. It is not hard hard to see NATOites gritting their teeth when journalists are arrested, protestors are killed and Kurds are massacred.
It's not at all that they care about beating people down. It's just that they wish it would have waited until after Assad was removed with the requisite "no fly" and "safe" zones. Erdogan is like the kid on the T-ball team who runs the bases backwards. He's f'n it up for everyone.
The situation is bad enough with the Saudis showing their asses to the world, Russia's intervention, the SAA's stubborn refusal to surrender the country and Iran's "ungrateful" insistence on backing her ally to the bitter end.
Things don't get any better on the other side of the Black Sea with Porky, Yats, the neo sturmtruppen and the rest of the gang doing their best to turn the Ukraine into Somalia. Bent IMF rules ending with embezzled aid money, misfit U.S. funded fugitive ex pat carpetbaggers, hysterical Russophobe media ridiculousness, in a sea of economic/infrastructure collapse all make Venezuela look a "socialist" paradise...now what system holds sway in Ukraine...? oh, no matter.
Anyway,
Turkey. Erdogan. Their "western" allies know full well he's erratic, ambitious and dangerous. He's just being all of those things at the wrong time. The best solution would be to get him to step down, or foment a coup, and get him Ukrainian citizenship. He'd make a really good governor or Minister. The perfect fit for that giant asylum.
He probably wouldn't go for it though, being the Great Humanitarian, bridge to the "west", twenty-first century Sultan and all. Maybe they'll get lucky and he'll have a stroke during which everyone will stand around and fumble f### about while he dies?
I guess that's the problem with clubs; eventually the wrong right kind of people get let in.
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