NATO's Strategy To Deter The Soviet Union (And Now Russia) Has Been Unchanged Since The Late 1940s

Robert Farley, National Interest: Why NATO Expected to Lose Most of Europe to Russia

Cold War lessons on the promise—and nuclear peril—of escalation

A recent RAND wargame on a potential Russian offensive into the Baltics brought talk of a “new Cold War” into sharp focus. The game made clear that NATO would struggle to prevent Russian forces from occupying the Baltics if it relied on the conventional forces now available.

These wargames have great value in demonstrating tactical and operational reality, which then informs broader strategic thinking. In this case, however, the headlines generated by the game have obscured more about the NATO-Russian relationship than they have revealed. In short, the NATO deterrent promise has never revolved around a commitment to defeat Soviet/Russian forces on NATO’s borders. Instead, NATO has backed its political commitment with the threat to broaden any conflict beyond the war that the Soviets wanted to fight. Today, as in 1949, NATO offers deterrence through the promise of escalation.

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WNU Editor: Being one who grew in the Soviet Union .... later Russia .... I always found these "war scenarios" uncomfortable and strange. The reason why is simple .... among my many family members, friends, associates, colleagues, people I knew in the military or government,  etc. .... I never met anyone who openly advocated for an invasion of NATO. Everyone saw such a scenario as a lose-lose situation .... hence to be avoided. Flash forward to today .... the situation is different .... Russia would invade the Baltics if they felt that the Russian minority that lives there were in danger .... Putin (or his successor) would enjoy overwhelming support because such an action would be viewed as protecting Russians. Ditto with the support that Russia is giving to the Russian Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine .... right or wrong the perception in Russia is that they must protect their Russian cousins ,,,, and international opinion be damned. But is it worthwhile for NATO to got to war against Russia if the reason why Russia is acting in such a manner is to protect people whose nationality is Russian .... I am willing to wager that they will not (but only under such a situation).