Politico: U.S., Russia agree to Syria cease-fire plan
U.S., RUSSIA ANNOUNCE PLAN FOR SYRIA CEASE-FIRE: The U.S. and Russia struck an agreement Friday intended to offer a path to a cease-fire in Syria. The New York Times has more here: “Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that they had agreed on the delivery over the next few days of desperately needed aid to besieged Syrian cities, to be followed by a “cessation of hostilities” within a week on the way to a more formal cease-fire.
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Previous Post: U.S., Russia, And Other Powers Agree To Implement A Cease-Fire In Syria Within The Next Week
Russia And The U.S. Agree To A Syrian Cease-Fire Plan (Updated)
Syria: cessation of hostilities 'within a week' agreed at Munich talks – as it happened -- The Guardian
Diplomats aim for temporary Syria truce in a week -- AP
Outlook for Syria peace talks still 'cloudy': U.N. -- Reuters
Partial Syria ceasefire agreed at talks in Munich -- The Guardian
Kerry: Deal reached to end hostilities in Syria -- The Hill
Kerry, Lavrov say Syria cease-fire to begin within one week -- Al Jazeera
Urgent aid set for Syria as powers propose cease-fire -- USA Today
Ministers agree to 'full cessation of hostilities' in Syria within week: Kerry -- i24 News
Global Powers Welcome Syria Cease-Fire Agreement -- WSJ
Will Syria ceasefire make a difference on the ground? -- Alastair Jamieson and Keir Simmons, MSNBC
Why the Syrian Ceasefire Will Not Stop Russia’s Bombing Campaign -- Simon Shuster, Time
A lot riding on Syria ceasefire deal, but little hope -- CBS
What You Need to Know About the Syria Cease-Fire Deal -- ABC News
Syria's ceasefire: what it means and doesn't -- Max Fisher, VOX
GOP chairman: Kerry's Syria cease-fire 'just words on paper' -- The Hill
Congress scoffs at U.S.-Russia deal for Syria cease-fire -- Politico
In Syria, Skepticism That Cease-Fire Will Stop Fighing -- NYT
1 comment:
There is less to the "ceasefire" than the Administration portrays. But the ceasefire marks a transition point in the Syria civil war.
1. The "ceasefire" is best understood as a recognition that the Russia/Iran/Hezbollah/Assad ("RIHA") coalition is reaching their immediate tactical goals. As I understand it, (a) most of the sieges of towns/bases held by the RIHA coalition have now been broken, (b) the RIHA coalition is about to surround, if not conquer, Aleppo, and (c) Assad's Alawite homeland in Latakia (Sp.?) has largely been cleared of opposition forces. Those were the immediate objectives of the intervention. RIHA now controls, more or less, the core of Syria, which are the useful parts of Syria.
2. With the RIHA coalition's military position much improved, RIHA can allow the negotiations to commence. RIHA is in a military position to assert that the Syrian civil war settle on terms favorable to Assad.
3. Negotiations will fail, probably right away. Opposition forces will not settle on terms leaving Assad in power.
4. The war will continue. By controlling Syria's core, RIHA is in a good tactical position:
a. Russia's new bases will be secure, and Assad is Russia's puppet. Russia has won a victory over the Gulf states, Turkey, Jordan, and the West. Russian influence in the Middle East grows, and the influence of the West wanes.
b. Iran retains territory and influence in Syria, and preserves its lines of communication to Hezbollah and Lebanon. Assad is under Iran's power. Iran scores a victory for Shiites over Sunnis, and a geopolitical victory over the Saudis, the Gulf states, Turkey, and the West.
c. Hezbollah keeps its lines of communication with its Iranian patrons open, and the Iranian subsidy of Hezbollah continues. Hezbollah may soon be able to turn its attention back to its primary enemy, Israel.
d. Assad stays alive, for now. Assad stays in office, at least until his Russian and Iranian masters decide he is no longer useful. The Alawites avoid slaughter, for now.
5. The war will continue. The "moderate" rebels, Kurds, al Qaeda, ISIS, and their various supporters will continue to fight RIHA and each other, but at the margins of the core of Syria controlled by RIHA. The war may continue indefinitely, but RIHA's control of the core seems secure unless something changes the correlation of forces. For that, Russia's control of the air would have to be overturned, and a large number of anti-RIHA fighters added on the ground.
6. Although RIHA's position looks good for now, I continue to believe that the religious and geopolitical conflicts under way in the Middle East has unleashed forces that may escape anyone's control. RIHA's victory does not look very stable.
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