CNN: Saudi Arabia official: If all else fails, remove Syria's Assad by force
Munich, Germany (CNN)Saudi Arabia's foreign minister says if the Syrian political process fails, President Bashar al-Assad will have to be removed "by force."
"I believe Bashar al-Assad is weak and I believe Bashar al-Assad is finished," Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir told CNN's Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview in Munich, Germany.
Saudi Arabia is prepared to contribute ground troops to the fight in Syria, but only as part of a U.S.-led coalition, he said.
"Bashar al-Assad will leave — have no doubt about it. He will either leave by a political process or he will be removed by force."
"We will push as much as we can to ensure that the political process works. But if it doesn't work, it will be because of the obstinance of the Syrian regime and that of its allies."
"And should that prove to be the case, then it becomes clear that there is no option to remove Bashar al-Assad except by force."
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WNU Editor: It is getting serious .... Saudi Arabia confirms will send deployment to Turkey base (Reuters), and the military situation is definitely escalating .... Amid peace talks, Is the military situation in Syria escalating? (Christina Beck, CSM).
23 comments:
WNU Editor,
Considering that Saudi Arabia and their pet jihadi's opted out of the peace talks,
And have rejected the US/Russian Cessation of Hostilities agreement,
This really is just stenography, not reporting.
IMHO, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are just engaged in "brinkmanship" to attempt to force the US to fight Russia, Iran and Syria, to the last dead American, to protect their pet jihadi's and try to "stalemate" the Syrian Civil War.
With 341 days left in Obama's term and Kerry pointing out:
“'What do you want me to do? Go to war with Russia? Is that what you want?'”
Turkey and Saudi Arabia are alone in this game.
Jay what is your guts telling you is going to happen next?,
On regard to this conflict.
Kerry and Obama will tell the Turks and the Saudi's to "stand down", agree to the Cession of Hostilities, get their pet jihadi's in line and come to the table at the Peace Talks.
There is a half a week left on the Cession, R+6 will keep pounding away until then, and if Turkey, Saudi, the GCC and their pet jihadi's don't fall in line by then, the US/Russia deal is moot, and "Blaming Russia's" gonna be a really hard sell.
Two weeks to the Peace Talks, which if the Turk's, Saudi's, the GC and their pet jihadi's don't show up for, will get postponed another month and the R+6 will keep making progress.
The Saudi move of moving SOF and aircraft to Turkey, was a "tell". Saudi Arabia has a huge border with Syria, and is right next to the ISIS held areas.
If it was about "ISIS" Saudi would attack from the south, Turkey from the north east. If it was an actual attempt to prop up their pet jihadi's against the R+6, it would be the same plan.
Saudi moving forces to Turkey suggests that it will be "brinkmanship", nusance raids into Syria, light shelling of the YPG, ( there are US SOF embedded with the YPG), and maybe, some limited intrusions into Syrian Airspace.
I wonder if the Saudi pilots were nervous as they were being painted by the s-400's as they approached Turkey...ah, good times.
The Saudi's probably flew a Saudi-Red Sea-Egypt-Med-Turkey route, or a Saudi-Jordan-Israel-Med-Turkey route to avoid both Syrian and Iraqi airspace.
In the absence of "conflict" the S-400 doesn't radar "paint", it's interlinks with other ir/optical/radar sensors in the theatre, allows it to remain in stealth mode as long as possible. It can track, target and fire with out ever turning it's own sensor suites on.
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Grumble-Gargoyle.html
The situation in the Middle East is rapidly deteriorating. I fear that the region is on the brink of a massive conventional war. Make no mistake, we may see a massive nationstate war in the region. It appears that earlier Russian reports of Turkey's military buildup are correct. The Turks have been amassing their 2nd Army on the boarder south of Gaziantep, Turkey. It is unknown what amount or which units of the Turkish military are built up in the region but their intention remains clear. The Turkish 2nd Army is the professional fighting force of the Turkish Armed Forces that received the most intention after their 2008 military reform. I don't believe that all of the 2nd Turkish Army can be involved in a land invasion of Syria, they are involved in the war against the Kurds in the Southern portion of Turkey. Turkey has the 2nd largest military in NATO and one of its most capable. The 2nd Turkish army is composed of 100,000 soldiers with the following units:
3rd Tactical Infantry Division
28th Mechanized Infantry Brigade
58th Artillery Brigade
1st Commando Brigade
2nd Commando Brigade
5th Armored Brigade
39th Mechanized Infantry Brigade
106th Artillery Regiment
34th Border Brigade
16th Mechanized Brigade (Diyarbakır)
20th Armored Brigade
70th Mechanized Infantry Brigade
172nd Armored Brigade
2nd Motorized Infantry Brigade
6th Motorized Infantry Brigade
3rd Commando Brigade
107th Artillery Regiment
The Saudis have also stated that they are deploying forces in Southern Turkey right now. Both have formed a joint command center at/near the American airbase in Incirklik, Turkey. Their exact units or numbers being sent are still unknown but the Saudis and Turks both confirmed the deployment. The Saudi Foreign Minister have also said that if the peace process fails Syrian President Assad still has to go and to do so using military force if needed. The intention of the Saudis and Turkey is clear to me, I feel that they are acting because they know the US will not help directly in the region and they have to to defend Saudi & Turkish interests. Both are working together to try and defeat the Shiite governments of Iraq, Iran, and Syria which are united to try and become the dominate powers in the Middle East. All nations (Besides Iraq) have stated that they will engage militarily if Turkey and/or Saudi Arabia engaged militarily in Syria. Turkey also doesn't want to see the Kurdish people establish their own nation state which would threaten Turkey. Russia has also stated that they would fight Saudi and/or Turkey if they intervened in Syria against pro Syrian government forces.
That is why Russia's Southern Military District is placed on full combat alert. The district is composed of 95,000 soldiers which includes three airborne divisions. Russia has rapid response capability and could deploy an airborne division in 18 hours to Syria. Russia has 5,000 to 7,000 soldiers and airmen in Syria already. Russia already has some number of special forces soldiers and mercenaries fighting along side Syrian government troops in Syria mostly focussed around Aleppo. Iran also has 20,000 soldiers engaged in Syria. They could send more troops with the recent development.
Turkey attacked Kurdish and Syrian Government forces with a heavy 3 hour artillery bombardment along the region of their military buildup in Northern Syria today! Several sources have confirmed this but no official government responses form any country have been released yet. I believe that the time has come for the Arab nations to intervene sighting the recent advances of Syrian government forces. The Syrian government will kill the moderate Syrian opposition VERY SOON since they have surrounded the city of Aleppo in Northern Syria. It is the center of the moderate opposition. The moderate rebel leaders have said that they will be destroyed unless a foreign nation intervenes on their behalf. That city has 300,000 civilians and some 30,000-50,000 rebel fighters trapped in it. The Russians have also formed an alliance with the Kurdish fighters in the region to target the strip of moderate rebel forces left between the Kurds to the west and ISIS to the east that lead to the Turkish boarder.
A Ceasefire agreement was signed a few days ago by some 17 world powers. It is supposed to enter into effect this coming Thursday. The Syrian government and opposition leaders were not present in any large form though so I doubt that any Syrian faction will abide by the treaty. The Syrian government will win the civil war if it continues uninterrupted. They know this and so have no reason to stop the war. They can win through a military victory. The West still denies this but I believe that the government can. Turkey and Saudi Arabia know this too.
Aleppo is 30 miles south of the Turkish boarder. The city of A'zaz is right across the boarder and already provides a military logistics hub for the opposition as supplies is sent to Aleppo. A'zaz isn't now though since the main road to Aleppo was cut by Syrian forces 5 days ago. Mountains lie right to the west of A'zaz which Kurds control and the region runs flat through for 40 miles (Starting east of the Kurdish region) until it becomes desert for 33 miles to the Euphrates river. About 30 miles south from Turkey and 20 miles east of Aleppo is the city of Al-Bab which is the ISIS control center west of the Euphrates river. The region before the mountains to the desert runs 30 miles deep with a gentle slope of 550 meters in elevation at the Turkish boarder to 400 odd meters at the city of Aleppo. The 40 mile by 30 mile gap is perfect for large armor units to move through. The elevation is in favor of a Turkish assault too with it leading downhill the whole way.
The stage is set. If Turkey & Saudi Arabia decides to invade, which all accounts are pointing to them intervening, they will first enter under the guise of the anti ISIS coalition. They will push to the city of Al-Bab. Turkey will also gain the two bridges across the Euphrates at the Turkish boarder giving Turkey the option to advance across the Euphrates at a later time. The main push will be by unrelenting armored/mechanized forces using the Kurdish controlled region to the west as the backbone for their military to drive to Aleppo. The Arab forces will push from A'zaz to Aleppo. The Arab force will fight Syrian/Iranian/Russian forces and hope to establish a control zone for refugees to go to and moderate rebels can stage out of the area. Russia may send in frontline ground troops which will drastically escalate the conflict. The Arab force feels that their intervention will save the opposition and force the removal of Assad over the long term.
The Russians/Iranians/Syrians see that they could defeat the Arab force militarily which could push Saudi Arabia and Turkey into political revolution. Both nations are facing a lot of internal unrest related to the events going on in the region. It is a dyer situation that they are in. This conflict shouldn't be taken lightly. Turkey is a member of NATO but NATO will not intervene because no other NATO state wants to get into a war with Russia. We will sit this conflict out but we will be supporting the Turks and Saudis the whole way. Turkey is the aggressor too and that doesn't constitute an Article V response from NATO which is only for when a member state is attacked. I think that the Russians/Iranians/Syrians forced the Arabs to attack by cutting off Aleppo and pushed North, threatening A'zaz. This has placed the Syrian 4th Republican Guard Armored Division in an awkward spot and can be easily cut off if attacked now. An Iranian Revolutionary Guards Brigade is also threatened just north of Aleppo at the moment by a possible move. Several other Syrian divisions, various militias and Russian Special Forces are also in the Aleppo area.
It appears that a major conventional engagement is about to occur in Syria. Its effects will be felt around the world. Time will only tell what will happen. The end game will not be seen for a while if the Arabs can carve out a control zone. If The Russians/Iranians/Syrians can push out the Arabs then the political fall out in Turkey and Saudi Arabia could tear their nations apart. The risks are big on both sides as both fight to decide if the Shiites or Sunnis will dominate the Middle East.
Respectfully,
Andrew
The Turks would have to station blocking forces in the Caspain, the Dardenelles, the Iranian Border and the Iraqi Border, while doubling their military slaughter of the Turkish Kurds and occuptying all Turkish Kurdish towns and sectors.
then, they have to advance across the border, through mountainous terrotory along twisting roads, with pardon the pop song reference, Kurds and US SOF to the left of me, Kurds and US SOF to the right of me.
all with out initial aircover.
www.ausairpower.net/…
degrading Syrian/Russian air defences, could take weeks, could take months. Nobody knows.
with out air supremacy, the Turks would have to advance against a Syrian Heavy Armour Brigaide that has been held in reserve, rearmed (T-90’s, rebuilt and upgraded T-73’s, Tochca’s etc) and retrained, and Russian Marines, which are Guard Level Rated and backed with Russian Heavy Artillary and Missile Forces.
meanwhile, Syria and Russia will bring the invasion to the UNSC and the UNGA, which creates a further political mess for the US, siding with Turkey is an act of war and will blow up NATO, using the veto will further scar the UNSC legitimacy, abstaining will result in UNSC Sanctions and Resolutions against Turkey.
Meanwhile, the Russian's and Iranians will bring in reinforcements, including "heavy" IRGC and Iranian Army forces.
as for the quality of the Turkish Military, who knows. Aside from beating up on the Kurds and invading Cyprus, what “peer” rated military conflicts have they been in lately?
Warning, graphic video of Ansruallah fighters casually walking into a Saudi Guard Forward Operating Base and killing the Saudi National Guard.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hSTAO-9MG3M&ebc=ANyPxKohgBEc4wwu0xiCy-rs52IWBSONrK2nPlZF-X_UmmNhLATFwC_gEJuU9hpr3hQkaomFUMcdkRw1uXUzd0RlhgtFiKdPyQ
Lot’s of people said the Saudi’s were highly rated.
According to Long War Journal, the Guardian and a fozen other sources, from both sides of the fence, the FSA fled Aleppo a week ago for the Syrian border, and Aleppo is in the hands of al Nusra which rushed in fighters three weeks ago.
I understand what you say but the Turkish airfare is still the largest in the region. They can provide initial air cover even against Russian systems. They have combat experience from fighting the Kurds for the last 30 years, not a standing army but still a fighting force. Even without airpower the Russians won't be able to use theres. Both sides have formidable armored forces to spare. i still stand behind my original posts.
Aleppo is still the prize in the region as it acts as the 'rebel capital.' Its lose is the end of the moderate opposition.
While there are 330,000 people in Syrian Government held Aleppo, which has been under seige for over 3 and a half years, ( the Syrian Government evacuated roughly 900,000 other residents out),
Jihadi held Aleppo had at last count, roughly 50,000 residents, most of whom according to recent reports, have fled to the Turkish border.
Aleppo has never been the "center" of jihadi resistance, it has, through out the Civil War, been a Shrian Government City.
Homs was the center of jihadi resistance, just like it was during the Muslim Brotherhood Uprising of the early '80's, but it fell to the Syrian Government a while ago.
While the Turks have a large modern airforce, even NATO is unnerved facing the S-400
http://fightersweep.com/3414/how-scary-is-the-russian-s-400-sam-system/
And while the PKK is a well organized force, it's still a light guerilla force lacking armour, modern anti-armour weapons, manpads, SAM's and even mortars and heavy machine guns.
Who cares let them fight the world needs rid of devil.
Who cares let them fight the world needs rid of devil.
Wnu keep up good work love reading ur blogs!
Wnu keep up good work love reading ur blogs!
I thought it was Hama that was the Jihadi nest? As in "Hama Rules".
http://middleeastvoices.voanews.com/2012/02/syrias-1982-hama-massacre-recalled-lesson-for-assad-today/
I thought it was Hama that was the Jihadi nest? As in "Hama Rules".
http://middleeastvoices.voanews.com/2012/02/syrias-1982-hama-massacre-recalled-lesson-for-assad-today/
Andrew,
I pretty much agree with you. I have some reservations on the Turkish Air Forces performance prospects vs. the Russians, but nothing they couldn't overcome at least in the initial phases. The Turkish and Saudi ground forces are of unknown quality to me, especially against a combined arms opponent such as Russia. To fair something of the same could be said of the Russians. All the major actors involved will be plunging into huge unknowns for themselves. I readily agree with you that anything resembling failure for Turkey and/or Saudi Arabia would mean overthrow at home. The easiest place to watch Russian reaction is the Black Sea and the Iranians along the Gulf.
Anything after the initial phases is a big unknown to me too. Turkey may get bogged down or not but their army is structured for a rapid reaction response. Their armored brigades are composed of 2 armored battalions, 2 mechanized infantry battalions and 2 self-propelled artillery battalions. Their mechanized bridges are the same except they only have one artillery battalion. That's a lot of firepower in one unit. The Russians still aren't in Syria with any exceptionally massive force. I don't believe they have that many SAM systems deployed and it is unknown how many systems are left operational by Syrians given the nation has been in civil war for nearly 5 years. Thoughts anyone?
Nothing is going as planned for anybody involved.
Sitting back and looking at everything unfold I am releaved America isn't militarily involved like in past conflicts.
Is Syria worth it?.....nope!
I may be wrong, but it seems the road to Damascus is shorter via Jordan than Turkey...
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/saudi-arabia-allies-gather-major-military-exercises-36934121
A buildup in Turkey a possible Ruse?
Why directly fight a massed army in the northern mountains when you can rush your armor through the southern desert and deal a decapitating blow?
Aleppo isn't the prize...its the distraction...In my opinion.
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