Vladimir Putin and members of Russian Security Council© Mikhail Klimentyev/Russian presidential press service/TASS
Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times: Questions Linger Over Russia’s Endgame in Syria, Ukraine and Europe
MOSCOW — The partial truce that Russia and the United States have thrashed out in Syria capped something of a foreign policy trifecta for President Vladimir V. Putin, with the Kremlin strong-arming itself into a pivotal role in the Middle East, Ukraine floundering and the European Union developing cracks like a badly glazed pot.
Beyond what could well be a high point for Mr. Putin, however, lingering questions about Russia’s endgame arise in all three directions.
In Syria, Russia achieved its main goal of shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad, long the Kremlin’s foremost Arab ally. Yet its ultimate objectives remain murky, not least navigating a graceful exit from the messy conflict.
In Ukraine, Russia maintains a public commitment to put in place a year-old peace agreement. Renewed fighting in the Russian-backed breakaway regions, however, suggests that Moscow seeks to further destabilize the Kiev government, already wobbly from internal political brawling.
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WNU Editor: What is Russia's endgame? In my opinion I am seeing a work in progress .... there are basic goals and objectives with red lines .... but no strategy on how to end it and to get what you want. In short .... a foreign policy on the fly. And when I say this to my "Russian friends" .... they bristle .... but in private they do not disagree with me.
3 comments:
Russia does have an endgame. Russia's endgame is to prevent the U.S.'s endgame, which is now referred to as Kerry's "Plan B," the overthrow of Syria's government and the division of Syria, why? -- because Syria is an Iran ally.
The background is here.
So Russia's endgame is the survival of the Syria state and its territory in line with the UN Charter.
Article 2
The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.
1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfil in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
The U.S. and its allies are acting against these principles, not recognizing the "sovereign equality" of Syria, and trying to overthrow its government and divide its territory.
That's the problem all the "powers" have, it's easy to get into something but not so much getting out.
Scott Adams wrote a book on systems vs. goals. I think Putin is pursuing a strategy based more on having a foreign policy system rather than some specific, inflexible goals he absolutely has to reach. Inasfar as he has an objective it is to keep pushing American influence back, keep the West on its toes, keep giving the folks back home a good show.
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