Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Will The Russian - Turkish Crisis Escalate?

Russian Sukhoi Su-34 jets at the Hmeimim airfield in Syria. © Dmitriy Vinogradov / RIA Novosti

Al-Monitor: Will Turkey, Russia fan flames into an inferno?

On Jan. 30, Turkey said its airspace was again violated by a Russian warplane. A statement by the Turkish Foreign Ministry said a Russian Su-34 warplane on Jan. 29 had violated Turkish airspace despite repeated warnings in Russian and English.

The statement said this was yet another concrete indication of Russia’s escalation despite clear warnings by Turkey and NATO. The statement said, “We are calling on Russia clearly to act more responsibly and not to violate NATO airspace.” It warned that Russia would bear full responsibility for any consequences that could arise from these “irresponsible actions.”

The Russian ambassador in Ankara was summoned to the Foreign Ministry on the night of Jan. 29 to receive a protest of this violation. In turn, the Russian Defense Ministry called the claims "pure propaganda," according to the statement.

That incident followed a Turkish F-16's downing Nov. 24 of a Russian Su-24 warplane that was giving air support to ground forces operating in Syria’s Bayirbucak region.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Since the beginning of this crisis, Turkey has taken every opportunity to make it clear to Russia that they have the backing of NATO, and that any action against them by Russia would be an action against NATO. Russia's response has been blunt .... they have signalled that they do not see Turkish airspace as being part of NATO .... Russia Declares There’s No Such Thing as ‘NATO Airspace’ (Observer). My read of the situation is that Russia is trying to split Turkey away from NATO, and that the Russians are signalling to NATO that this is not their fight and that they should stay out of it. My prediction is that NATO will not acquiesce to this .... Turkey (for better or worse) is a part of NATO, and they are protected by treaty obligations. But I suspect that NATO is also telling Turkey to not inflame the situation , and it would not be in anyone's interest to have a shooting war breaking-out between Russian SU-34s and Turkish F-16s.

2 comments:

Jay Farquharson said...

WNU Editor,

Technically, Russia is right.

There is national airspace and national borders, not NATO.

Under attack, a Nation can invoke Article 5, Mutual Self Defence, and the NATO nations first then vote on it, then, if they agree it was an attack, get to decide on their own if ghey want to opt in, or stay out.

Of course, Article 5 does not apply to a NATO nation attacking somebody else, and fhen having it go horribly wrong.

After the SU-27 shoot down, NATO Members read Turkey the "riot act".

Unknown said...

There are no penguins in Alaska...
There was never a stated intention by Russia to invade the Balkans, but its "mobilization" in July 2014 gave Germany an excuse to fully mobilize themselves...
What is in someone's best interest is always determined by them... NATO does not control Turkey or more specifically, Erdogan.
Force without utility is nothing but a temper tantrum. The question is; is Erdogan a hungry toddler or a strategic thinker? Same for Putin.