A Look At The Partial Russian Military Withdrawal From Syria

Participants attend a ceremony to welcome Russian military jets and pilots upon their arrival from Syria at an airbase in Buturlinovka in Voronezh region, Russia, in this still image taken from video March 15, 2016. REUTERS/Russian Ministry of Defence

Dimitry Gorenburg and Michael Kofman, War on The Rocks: There is no Russian Withdrawal from Syria

With characteristic deadpan delivery, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the sudden withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria earlier this week, declaring their campaign a success. Before the day was through, Russian aircraft and crews were already departing from Hmeymim air base in Latakia. Since this announcement, the media has been alight with speculation on the meaning of Russia’s sudden departure, its political and military implications, and the reasons for this seemingly unexpected move. Much of the discussion has thus far missed the mark. There is no Russian withdrawal from Syria, but rather a drawdown of the air contingent present in Latakia. Putin simply moved pieces on the board, without altering the equation.

This maneuver is more about political perceptions than military reality. It constitutes a political reframing of Russia’s intervention in order to normalize Moscow’s military presence in Syria, and make it permanent, while convincing Russians at home that the campaign is over. Putin’s statement is yet another successful effort to achieve a domestic and international publicity coup.

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Update #1: Don’t Be Fooled, Russia’s Leaving Its Most Important Elements In Syria (Russ Read, Daily Caller).
Update #2: Russia Isn’t Really Withdrawing From Syria (Alastair Crooke, Huffington Post)

WNU Editor: The good part of the Russia jet-air strike force may have left the country .... Russia flies out almost half Syria strike force: Reuters analysis (Reuters), but the attack helicopters are coming in .... As Russian Fighter Jets And Bombers Leave Syria Their Advanced Attack Helicopters Arrive To Take Their Place, and their air defense systems will remain .... Putin: Russia's air defense systems to remain in Syria (DW). Besides .... according to Putin himself .... these forces can quickly return to Syria .... Russia can make powerful Syria military comeback in hours: Putin (Reuters).

On a side note there is also now a debate on how extensive Russian ground forces/operations are  involved in the war in Syria .... Kremlin says no comment on alleged Russian military participation in Syria ground battles (TASS). More here .... Putin’s honouring of Syria veterans suggests wider involvement (The Guardian).

Update #3: Instead of planes, the Russian military in Syria are now using artillery .... Russia pulls most strike aircraft from Syria, now using artillery - U.S. (The Star).