Battle of Aegospotami, Peloponnesian War
David P. Goldman, Asia Times: The 30% solution — when war without end ends: Spengler
During the Cold War, the assumption that nations are rational actors dominated foreign policy research, and with good reason: the United States and the Soviet Union pursued their rivalry by rational means. Mathematical simulation provided baseline scenarios for conflict management. Today, the emergence of militant Islam as a major (and perhaps the most important) strategic threat to the United States challenges the old assumption of rationality. Where this assumption prevails, as in the effort to bring Iran into the strategic architecture of Western Asia, it is deeply controversial.
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WNU Editor: I have heard about the 30% threshold more than once .... and David P. Goldman makes the case for it in this long but fascinating post. I would also add the importance of destroying hope in the enemy ... as long as the enemy has hope that they will win ... regardless of how many men they have lost .... the war will continue.
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