Sunday, March 13, 2016

Could A Soviet Union Style Break-up Happen To China?

Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest: China's Greatest Fear: Dead and Buried Like the Soviet Union

Twenty-five years ago, the mighty Soviet Union was finally thrown onto the ash heap of history—never to rise again. And yet, the fall of one of the most powerful empires in human history, we often forget, was never a sure thing. Indeed, looking back just ten years’ time, to 1981, very few people foresaw the demise of the USSR. In fact, many made predictions that it was America who was in for a rough patch in the years to come. Even a cursory survey of history from that era depicts an America still struggling to overcome a deeply ingrained malaise: the Soviets seemed on the march almost everywhere, the U.S. economy was in shambles, the nation was still reeling from the emotional scars of the Vietnam War as well as the resignation of a sitting president. The hits just kept on coming—a seemingly never-ending crisis, and what must have felt like a true “crisis of confidence.”

But here we are. The USSR is no more. The Warsaw Pact is gone. Gorbachev is doing Pizza Hut commercials. America clearly prevailed in one of the most spectacular geopolitical contests of our time—all without the burning embers of a nuclear fire that could have killed billions.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Before going on my first trip to China in the mid-1980s, I schooled myself on learning the culture, history, language .... as well as the politics and economics of China. I was prepared for anything and everything .... but what I did not expect was learning within a week of my stay that China is actually a deeply divided country along regional/ethnic/and cultural lines .... and if given a chance for independence many of these regions (where the ethnicity is not Han Chinese) would grab it within an instant. That is why China reminds me of the old Soviet Union .... especially on the political level. The outlining provinces are pushing for autonomy and/or more powers, and Beijing is not budging .... fearing that it would accelerate to a Soviet styled break-up .... and they are right.

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