The U.S. And China Are Moving Towards A Dangerous Showdown Over The South China Sea

U.S. President Barack Obama, right, meets with Xi Jinping, the incoming leader of China, at the White House on Feb. 14, 2012. Photo credit: Bloomberg News

David Ignatius, Washington Post: The U.S. is heading toward a dangerous showdown with China

The Obama administration is moving toward what could be a dangerous showdown with China over the South China Sea.

The confrontation has been building for the past three years, as China has constructed artificial islands off its southern coast and installed missiles and radar in disputed waters, despite U.S. warnings. It could come to a head this spring, when an arbitration panel in The Hague is expected to rule that China is making “excessive” claims about its maritime sovereignty.

What makes this dispute so explosive is that it pits an American president who needs to affirm his credibility as a strong leader against a risk-taking Chinese president who has shown disregard for U.S. military power and who faces potent political enemies at home.

“This isn’t Pearl Harbor, but if people on all sides aren’t careful, it could be ‘The Guns of August,’ ” says Kurt Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for Asia, referring to the chain of miscalculations that led to World War I. The administration, he says, is facing “another red line moment where it has to figure out how to carry through on past warnings.”

What troubles the White House is that President Obama thought he was assured by President Xi Jinping in Washington in September that China would act with restraint in the South China Sea. “China does not intend to pursue militarization,” Xi said publicly in the Rose Garden.

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Update: Why China is militarizing the South China Sea (Video) -- Washington Post

WNU Editor: The Chinese have always been aggressive when it comes to border disputes, but this maritime border dispute is something else entirely. To put it simply .... "it is their way or the high-way" .... and the Chinese have made it very clear they will use military force to reaffirm their claims. The fact that Chinese government also has overwhelming public support for this stance .... even to use military force to assert these claims .... is doubly concerning. Because there is this overwhelming public support for this stance, no Chinese leader .... President Xi included .... is going to adopt a more conciliatory position because it would be perceived as a sign of weakness and a loss of face. In my last two trips to China I got into "discussions" with my Chinese hosts that such a policy will result in disaster for China .... that they should never underestimate the U.S., and that they should definitely not underestimate President Obama. Unfortunately .... the Chinese have always had a low regard to President Obama, and they quite frankly are not concerned on what he may do ... hence the Chinese stance today, and the dilemma that the U.S. and its Asian allies are now facing.