Chinese oil rig Haiyang Shi You 981 (C) is seen in the South China Sea, off the shore of Vietnam in this May 14, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Minh Nguyen/Files
James Goldrick, Lowy Institute, Real Clear Defense: Beijing's South China Sea "Land Creation"
At What Cost?
China's leadership faces difficult decisions in the South China Sea. China is at some risk of achieving what it sees as a military success at the price of losing the peace.
There is increasing evidence that its land creation (for they are not 'reclamation') activities in the South China Sea are developing a network of bases that will support fixed sensors, such as radars and underwater arrays, as well as the operations of air and seaborne surveillance units. The cumulative effect intended by Chinese planners appears to be to make it too dangerous during a conflict for other nations, most notably the US, to conduct significant military operations in the area, whether on, under or over the South China Sea; and certainly to make sure that none will go undetected in peace time.
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WNU Editor: I cannot help but sense that China is pursuing its territorial ambitions with the expectation that this will all blow-over in the next few years. But if they think this will "blow-over" .... I doubt it. China may get what it wants, but for all practical purposes it has damaged its diplomatic relations with almost every country in the region .... and this damage is multi-generational .... meaning it will be an issue and a sore-point for decades to come.
4 comments:
What point is there in building islands?
The warmists tell us that islands will be underwater soon.
Or did Obama do his imitation of Moses, raised his hands and stopped the oceans from rising?
After all The Big O, Winfrey, said he was 'The One'.
The purpose of the Islands is Forward Deployal of Area Denial Systems.
The US Battle Plan for China was to seize control of the South China Sea, attack the major southern Ports and Industrial Cities, starve China out, and get major concessions before the global loss in trade causes a world wide economic collapse.
With the Forward Deployal of ADS, the Battle will now be the US attempting to force it's way into the South China Sea, and the New Silk Road Project reduces China's reliance on import/export shipping in the South China Sea.
It is easy to starve China out. The SLOCs do not begin the South China Sea and end at the Chinese ports.
Shipping by water is much cheaper than by land.
Rail does bring down the costs considerably. That Rail also goes through Muslim territory.
If Moscow is China's bread basket than securing SLOCs is not needed to prevent starvation. After sanctions were put on Russia, the Russians gave tax credits to pig farming. As a result Russia is replacing America s the supplier of this commodity to China, Last I checked there was no ocean between China and Russia. I mean Lake Baikal is not an ocean nor does it separate Russian and China.
Also, if countries do not ship product there is no SLOC to protect.
Seizing the South China Sea is as dumb as America making The Phillipines a colony.
America wanted SLOC to China, they wanted to keep other powers out like Germany and the wanted to practice mercanatilism or something close to it. They want the raw resources and a dedicated market for their goods. the 1st two items could have been had with treaties. The last item is not free trade. It is force.
China should treat Vietnam more like it did during the Qing dynasty. They sent soldiers to assist the Vietnamese against the French. Of course this assistance was not totally altruistic, but they could have played it another way. They could have split Vietnam with France like Austria, Germany and Russia partitioned Poland.
What China should have done is split the Sea with Vietnam and The Phillipines and do their best to make them allies.
The Phillipines is much more of an unsinkable aircraft carrier than a Paracel island that might be taken out by a typhoon or nuke (Or a Typhoon with a nuke). Just saying.
"starving" refers to economic starvation,
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