Summary: The idea that Russia and China are going to become close allies fails to account for the constraints and geopolitical imperatives of both countries. Neither can be content in a situation where the U.S. has untrammeled power in the world. But that does not change the geography that makes the interests of Beijing and Moscow so different. In this case, the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend.
The United States is the world's dominant power, and is without peer. But Russia and China are arguably the next two most significant world powers on the list. Russia's economy may be in shambles, and it is in the process of updating its military and rearming for 21st century conflict - but even so, Moscow boasts a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons and just demonstrated in Syria how effective a limited deployment of Russian troops can be. China now has the second largest GDP in the world, and convulsions in the Chinese economy have global ramifications, as the crisis of the exporters has demonstrated.
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WNU Editor: I have always believed that what binds two countries together in a firm alliance is more than just political, military, or economic considerations .... what is the important ingredient is cultural. On this issue .... there is little in Chinese culture that Russians can relate to .... and there is very little in Russian culture that appeals to the Chinese. I lived and worked in China for a number of years .... and while I adapted myself to their culture very quickly, I found that many of my Russian colleagues did not and/or could not. As I was told numerous times .... my colleagues just did not feel comfortable living, eating, talking, debating, etc., with their Chinese counterparts .... and many times I could tell that the feelings were mutual from the Chinese side. I was lucky .... and admittedly an oddball from my peers .... I loved being in China, and the Chinese responded in kind. Even today .... my best contacts outside of Russia are in China, and these friendships are just as solid as family.
As to the question .... will China and Russia become allies? .... my answer is no. There will be cooperation, agreements, and shared interests on political, economic, and military issues .... but no unconditional friendship or support.
1 comment:
After many years of living with the other, I find they are no different.
Oligarchies do not want to play second fiddle. There is a pecking order. It is no different than chickens. It is sad.
People might have different thresholds, but those are just differences in parameters by a point or two. It is difference in tempering and annealing. We are still talking about the same base substance.
FUCK the oligarchies!
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