Smoke rises after an airstrike in the rebel held area of old Aleppo, Syria April 18, 2016. REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail/File Photo
The Economist: Syria’s peace talks and partial ceasefire are both breaking down
A suffering country drifts back into war
HOW long is a piece of string? That is about as good an answer as there is to the question of when the partial “cessation of hostilities” in Syria will be deemed to have been broken. The fighting has abated to a surprising and welcome degree since the ceasefire came into force on February 27th; but violations are now on the increase. A recent uptick in violence, especially around Aleppo, suggests that a new crisis has begun.
Since the first week in April the Damascus-based regime of Bashar al-Assad has been bombing areas south of the city. They have got away with this in part because the opposition there is dominated by Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, one of the terrorist groups exempted from the ceasefire, along with Islamic State (IS). But recent air strikes have also hit civilian areas. Over the weekend the government carried out at least four in the city. A raft of air strikes further south in Homs killed four people.
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Update: Syrian peace talks in quagmire as rebels prepare for more war (Reuters)
WNU Editor: Cannot say that I am surprised. I also suspect that this is going to be the bloodiest summer in Syria since the start of the war.
2 comments:
There are very strong rumors of IRG exhaustion and possible withdrawal. There are also very strong rumors of Hezbollah low morale and dissatisfaction in mid and lower ranks. Ad Hoc cooperation with the US and Russia has not panned out as well as Iran had hoped and they are considering a tactical withdrawal for rest and regrouping. They're problem is can this be done without loss of face and endangerment of the sitting regime. Solemaini's movements and non movements of the last 3 months have been enlightening.
Russia's not quitting, Iran just deployed the 41st Parachute Brigaide, ( the first "official" deployment of a combat unit), Assad's not stepping down,
But the allied and coordinated "FSA"/al Nusra offensives in Aleppo and Ildib, and the coordinated ISIS/ "FSA" offensives near dir Ezzor, plus the Syrian Opposition's walk away from the Peace Talks, shows that the R+6 is right, there is no Moderate Syrian Opposition.
There will be no more peace talks, Aleppo will be back in Syrian Govenment hands by the end of May, along with dir Ezzor, then, on to Raqqa.
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