A Former Special Forces Officer Explains Why You Only Need To Be 70% Certain Before You Act In Battle

("60 Minutes"/CBS News)

Former Delta Force commander Dalton Fury, a pseudonym, appeared on "60 Minutes" wearing prosthetics and colored contact lenses in 2008.

Richard Feloni, Business Insider: Former Delta Force officer says the elite military unit taught him you only have to be 70% certain before you act — here's why

Over more than 20 years in United States Army special operations, first as a Ranger and then a Delta Force operator, Dalton Fury learned that effective leaders never wait for perfect certainty to act.

Fury is the pseudonym he uses for both his nonfiction and fiction writing, since his time in the highly secretive Delta Force has required him to conceal his true identity.

In an emailed list of leadership lessons sent to Business Insider, Fury posited a hypothetical question before giving a surprising answer: "How much information or intelligence does a special operations unit need before they launch a high-risk kill or capture mission? I argue that very rarely will the intelligence picture be better than a 70% solution, and at that point action should be taken."

Waiting for that extra 5-10% closer to 100% clarity only further closed the window of opportunity.

Fury argued that only after the American special forces and their elite allies adopted this 70% mentality were they able to finally take the steps that led to eliminating Al-Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

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WNU Editor: One of the things that I learned from my father is the importance of instinct in battle. Instinct is not 100% .... but ask any soldier, and they would all credit instinct for saving their lives and/or succeeding in a mission. And while mistakes do happen, being 100% certain usually ends up in a "too late and too little" outcome.