Photo Credit: Anadolu/Contributor
Brian Michale Jenkins and Colin P. Clarke, Foreign Policy: In the Event of the Islamic State’s Untimely Demise…
Even a caliphate needs a Plan B. Here's what Baghdadi's might look like.
The power of the Islamic State is waning. With its loss of Ramadi and Palmyra over the past several months, and the steady advance of U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in northern Syria and Iraq, the group is shedding territory. It is also losing recruits to casualties and desertions, as its finances are being squeezed by coalition strikes on bulk cash storage sites and oil refineries. Meanwhile, the coalition campaign to eliminate high-value battlefield targets is succeeding.
Yet, defeat does not appear imminent. The Islamic State still controls key territory, including Raqqa, the capital of its caliphate; the Iraqi city of Mosul and large swaths of territory in the surrounding Nineveh province; and hardscrabble Sunni enclaves in Anbar province, such as Fallujah, Hit, and Haditha. Furthermore, though the coalition has deprived the Islamic State of hundreds of millions of dollars, it is likely to find new, creative ways to replenish its diminishing war chest.
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WNU Editor: Facing defeat my prediction is that they will go underground where they will then position themselves to sustain an insurgency that can last for years. The IRA in Ireland comes to mind.
3 comments:
WNU Editor,
Not so sure about ISIS's Plan B being going to ground.
The IRA, even the Provo's had large amonts of popular support, not just on both sides of the border, but amongst expat Irish in the US, the EU and Britain.
In Syria, many/most of the ISIS members are Foreigners and Iraqi's, and have to coerce cooperation from much of the local population through violence, threats and control of basic supplies and services. 6 foot 4 inch redheaded bearded Chechen's will kinda stand out as the Dyrian State starts digging through the surrendered areas for jihadists in hiding.
In Iraq, ISIS's local support from the local tribes is much more complex, but much of that support has been lost due to the jihadist "rule" in those enclaves, and was predicated on ISIS "winning" over the Iraqi Army, the Peshmurga and the Shia Militia's.
IRA was supported also in Canada.
In my younger days I spent a bit of time at and Irish pub, The New Windsor House in Toronto. Great food, beer and wonderful Irish folk music including IRA songs. Occasionally some young men in para military outfits were there. The age of the patrons was from 18 year old nannies to 80+ year old folk all singing the same songs. One of the groups was wonderful and had everyone up dancing and singing in that packed bar.
At one point the band leader asked everyone to relax and listen to the words of the next song that had been released in Ireland only a week before. It was a song about Bobby Sands having just died after a protest starvation in prison. As he sang the song I watched the crowd. Everyone, all ages, were mouthing the words and wiping tears from their faces.
It was said that a nickle from every beer sold at that pub went to the IRA.
There actually has been a leak of their intentions in this case. They are intent on capturing all 7/11's and Wag a Bags in the Western Hemisphere.
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