Leonid Ragozin, Bloomberg: Putin's Core Support Begins to Waver
Working-class Russians hurt by recession look for someone to blame—in an election year.
Russia embarks on an almost two-year-long election season this summer that ends with a presidential contest in 2018. But unlike previous years, the country's faltering economy has taken its toll on lower-income voters who blame the Duma and the cabinet for their plight.
Five years ago, allegations of vote rigging led to the biggest antigovernment protests since Vladimir Putin’s ascent—dozens of opposition activists and leaders were jailed. The current election cycle comes amid an economic crisis caused in large part by earlier declines in oil prices, Russia's key export. The recession has left many employers cash-strapped, sending workers into the streets to protest unpaid wages and reduced working hours. The Center for Economic & Political Reforms, a think-tank close to the Russian Communist Party, reports an almost twofold increase in protests in March compared with previous months, a steep rise since last year.
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WNU Editor: News reports like this one are not helping him .... Navalny Activists: Russian Real Estate Holdings Now Being Hidden (RFE), and an economy that is still stagnant (albeit improving lately) is also a drag on his popularity. There is also a growing sentiment that maybe now is the time for a new leader .... that Putin has been in power too long, and now is the time for someone new. My prediction .... if there was a viable alternative to him in the next election .... an opposition leader with a clear vision and the ability to articulate it .... there is a very good chance that Putin may be defeated. But there is no one on the horizon yet, and (unfortunately) I doubt that there will be one by 2018 when the next Russian Presidential election is suppose to take place.
2 comments:
This article is something else. It speaks of corruption in Putin's time while showcasing a bunch of dis-credited liberal vende patrias as having a shot at leadership. Mentioning "fond memories" of Yeltsin was no less gag inducing. When was corruption and outright gangsterism more prevalent than in the Yeltsin years???? When was Russia weaker??? Yeah sure, fond memories for those who wanted her on her knees.
Working Russians, Putin's base, sincerely care about their country and don't just see it as a lump of real estate to throw a "for sale" sign on (these rotten bourgeois bastards are the same where ever they are, they think everything and everyone is theirs to sell). So does Putin, for all his warts.
He strikes me as Lot, imperfect, sometimes hypocritical, but essentially decent and disgusted by the Sodomites -- to the west. His liberalism could be represented by Lot's daughters; provoking incest and begetting troubled offspring. The liberals could be cast in the role of his wife, turned to a pillar of salt for looking back (west) while the Sodomites are rained on with fire and brimstone. The Russian working people, well, they are God's messengers :)
"But there is no one on the horizon yet, and (unfortunately) I doubt that there will be one by 2018 when the next Russian Presidential election is suppose to take place."
The fact is that this isn't a coincidence. The Yeltsin-Putin regime has consistently worked to undermine any effective opposition. It has made sure that the posiition of the main opposition is occupied by hated and squabbling liberals; they have also done their best to promote and assist Navalny so that he would be the nearest thing that bunch has to a leader. I don't doubt that there are some articulate leaders with a clear vision that could have ran against Putin, if they had the exposure and the political machinery to do so (Oksana Dmitrieva surely counts, and would be my choice for president if there was any chance whatsoever). But the regime does not leave those things to chance. It nips all options more appealing than itself in the bud. This also means that Putin's popularity doesn't matter. Yeltsin was very unpopular, but he managed to hang on. Popularity with the elite matters, with the people, only inasfar as it provides him with leverage to use with the elite.
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